2016全球奢侈品市场监控（英文版）_54页-8mb

2016 Global Luxury Market Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2016 global luxury market experienced a mix of growth and challenges, marked by a slowdown in key regions like the US and China, while Europe and some Asian markets showed resilience. The market is undergoing structural changes with a shift towards experiential and value-sensitive consumption, and an increasing role of digital and off-price channels. The document outlines macro-trends, regional performance, and strategic implications for luxury brands.

Key Industry Macro-Trends

• Luxury Cars: Maintained strong growth of +8% in 2016, with Europe leading the market. Russia saw increased sales due to ruble devaluation, while China's growth slowed. The connection with tech industries and the development of self-driving and fully connected cars are significant trends.
• Luxury Hotels and Cruises: The luxury hotels market remained stable, while luxury cruises saw growth, particularly in out-of-the-way destinations. River cruising gained popularity in Europe.
• Luxury Food and Wines & Spirits: Spirits outperformed fine wines due to higher volumes in mature markets. The premiumization of cocktails and the challenge faced by local labels in China are notable.
• Fine Art: The market remained stable at ~70% of the total art market. The US led in real terms, while online platforms accelerated in the 1-20K€ price range.
• High-Quality Design: Continued healthy growth post-2008 crisis. Europe's post-war and contemporary segments performed well, while Asia and emerging markets drove expansion.
• Luxury Yachts and Private Jets: Experienced a stable market, though with polarization. Challenges included geopolitical instability and economic factors in oil-dependent economies.

Regional Performance

• Europe: Despite a decline in tourist-driven sales, local consumption recovered. France and Germany were negatively impacted by terrorist attacks and 2015 comparables. The UK saw growth due to GBP devaluation.
• Asia: China showed a recovery after three years of stagnation, though international consumption declined. Japan had a mixed performance with high tourist demand in early 2016 but was affected by JPY appreciation. South Korea and other parts of Asia showed positive trends.
• Americas: The US market remained depressed, while Canada and some parts of Latin America improved. The strong dollar negatively impacted tourist flows.
• Rest of the World (RoW): The UAE outperformed, while the Middle East and Africa showed a lackluster trend.

Consumer Trends

• Chinese Consumers: Dominated the market as a growth driver, but their spending slowed in 2016. They are expanding their luxury basket to include more experiences, and their international consumption decline affected global sales.
• Millennials: Luxury chains are adapting to attract this demographic through new formats and concepts like pop-up stores and mobile showrooms.
• Value Sensitivity: Consumers are increasingly seeking value for money, driving the off-price channel and discount sales, which accounted for 37% of the total market.
• Digital Influence: E-commerce grew rapidly, with a 7% penetration rate. Mobile played a key role in driving online sales, and digital platforms are enabling new forms of engagement.

Channel and Format Analysis

• Off-Price and Airport Retail: These channels outperformed traditional retail, with the off-price market growing at 11%. Airport retail was affected by shifts in tourist flows.
• E-commerce: Continued to be a growth leader, with a 7% market share. It is seen as a stainless star in the market.
• Retail Expansion: Slowed down, with a shift towards rationalization. Direct-to-outlet strategies and better control over wholesale partners are emerging trends.
• Pop-up Stores and Mobile Showrooms: New retail concepts aimed at broadening distribution and targeting a wider customer base.

Strategic Implications

• Pricing Strategy: Brands are adopting "locally global" pricing strategies and personalizing in-store experiences.
• Distribution Focus: Re-focusing on local markets and optimizing footprints.
• Fast Luxury Model: Evolving into a value-driven model that emphasizes speed and accessibility.
• Brand Content and Storytelling: Increasing importance of content and storytelling to engage consumers.
• Consolidation: A new wave of consolidation is emerging, with multiple management and creative leadership changes across luxury groups.

Future Outlook

• Market Growth: The global personal luxury goods market is projected to reach €280-285B by 2020, with a CAGR of +3 to +4% since 2017.
• Demographics: The growing urban middle class and increasing individualism are reshaping the luxury market.
• Age Shifts: Aging populations are driving shifts in spending towards 30-40 and 50-60 age groups.
• New Normal: The market is transitioning from an "industry index" to a focus on "winners & losers," with clear changes in consumption and industry dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• The 2016 market was a transition year, with a mix of growth and decline across regions and segments.
• Experiential luxury is gaining traction over traditional goods.
• The off-price and e-commerce channels are driving growth.
• China's domestic market is recovering, but international consumption is still declining.
• Geopolitical tensions and economic factors are affecting consumer behavior and market performance.