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Morgan Stanley Research Summary: Future of Energy in Asia Pacific

Key Findings

1. AI Efficiency and Power Demand

   • DeepSeek R1 model demonstrates significantly less compute intensity (7.8x reduction in GPU usage) and efficiency gains in training, which may redefine global AI scaling.
   • "Jevons Paradox" could accelerate AI adoption: falling compute costs (demonstrated by ~90% unit cost reduction over six years) are driving the volume and intensity of AI applications, potentially increasing power demand in the long term.

2. Impact on Utility Valuations

   • Asian power utilities have seen average valuation upgrades of ~20-40% due to institutionalized AI-driven power demand, as physical assets benefit from regulated growth.
   • Malaysia and Australia show the highest risk/reward profiles due to concentrated exposure to new data centers and hyperscaler clients. Conversely, Japan and Singapore utilities face limited AI-driven earnings multiples adjustments.
   • Reliance (India) is understated on AI integration, potentially offering oversights for investors.

3. AI Power Demand Forecast

   • The shift in AI training efficiency to DeepSeek-level could lower power demand growth by approximately 0.7-0.9% globally by 2027.
   • Hotspots:
     • Malaysia: Largest impact at 0.25% of total power demand (250 bps).
     • Australia & ASEAN: Significant clusters of H100 chip demand and datacenter expansion.
     • United States: Overcounted due to higher AI power consumption compared to DeepSeek’s efficiency.

4. Investment Opportunities

   • Top-Picks: Tenaga (Malaysia), AGL/American Resources Origin (Australia), SembCorp (Singapore), Chugoku Electric Power (Japan).
   • Avoids include J-Power, Nippon Keud Electric Power, and certain Chinese firms beyond policy-aligned segments.

Global Implications of AI

• Demand Curve Inflection: Current models project 4-6% growth, contingent on chip supply and energy grid upgrades.

Caveat

This analysis reflects Morgan Stanley’s views, but note:

• Potential Conflicts: Not all investment advice is objective due to dual global and local relationships in India (October 2024 disclosure).
• Excluded Assumptions: Regulators expect no investment advice; independent evaluation is required.

Underlying Trends

• Renewable energy integration remains subdued due to demand spikes from AI.
• Regulatory frameworks are gradually aligning valuations post-JP Morgan Reinsurance (RP4) shifts.