20151002-Maybank_KERPL-Indonesia_Consumer_48页_908kb

报告摘要

Indonesia Consumer Sector Summary

Core Content

The Indonesia consumer sector is expected to stabilise in 4Q15F, though the outlook remains more challenging than in previous years. This is due to continuous IDR depreciation, weak consumer sentiment, and rising competition. The IDR has depreciated by 18% YTD, which could further pressure margins of consumer companies, as most raw materials are priced in USD. While lower commodity prices have partially offset this, they have also eroded purchasing power, especially outside Java.

Main Points

Consumption Outlook:
- Stabilisation expected in 4Q15F.
- Challenging outlook for 1H16F, with potential upside if the IDR stabilises and government infrastructure projects accelerate.
- Consumer confidence remains strong but lower than previous years.
- Inflation and currency volatility are key concerns.
Valuation Trends:
- Valuations have become more attractive against historical levels after recent pull-backs.
- Companies with strong fundamentals and innovation are preferred.
Key Companies:
- ICBP and KLBF are highlighted as top picks due to their long-term growth potential, pricing power, innovation, and strong balance sheets.
- AISA is upgraded to BUY with a target price of IDR2,000 (16x FY16F P/E), driven by growth in consumer food and rice business.
- ACES is upgraded to BUY with a target price of IDR600 (18x FY16F P/E) due to undemanding valuation and long-term growth potential.

Key Information

Consumer Confidence: Remains positive but has declined compared to previous years.
Inflation: Affects consumer spending and pricing strategies.
Currency Volatility: IDR depreciation impacts consumer companies' margins.
Infrastructure Projects: Expected to boost income growth and purchasing power.
Market Trends:
- Food retailers are expected to outperform non-food retailers.
- New players are entering the market, increasing competition.
Population Dynamics: Indonesia has a large population of 256 million as of Jul 2015, with 43% under 25 years old, suggesting long-term growth potential.

Top Picks and Valuation Table

Ticker	Recommendation	Price (IDR)	Target Price (IDR)	Mkt Cap (USD mn)	ADTV (USD mn)	PER 15F (x)	PER 16F (x)	PB 15F (x)	ROE 15F (%)	EV/EBITDA 15F (x)	Div Yield 15F (%)	Net DTE 15F (%)	Company
ICBP	Buy	12,400	16,000	5,562	2.0	22.4	20.4	4.4	19.8	14.8	1.8	net cash	Indofood CBP
KLBF	Buy	1,375	2,000	4,958	4.0	29.0	25.2	6.0	20.6	18.9	1.7	net cash	Kalbe Farma
AISA	Buy	1,450	2,000	359	0.3	13.2	11.1	1.4	10.5	8.1	0.7	818	Tiga Pilar
ACES	Buy	505	600	666	0.3	15.7	14.9	3.1	19.5	11.1	1.0	net cash	Ace Hardware

Additional Insights

Consumer Staples: AISA is a top pick due to its growth in consumer food and rice, with a focus on snacks and wider distribution.
Rice Expansion: AISA is expanding its rice mills and aims to gain 5% of the rice market by 2020F.
Margin Pressure: Companies may adopt more conservative pricing strategies amid weak consumer sentiment and rising competition.
Retail Sector: Food retailers are preferred over non-food retailers due to more resilient demand.
Market Capitalization: The sector's total market cap is IDR50.954 billion as of 30 Sep 2015.

Summary Table for AISA

FYE Dec (IDR b)	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue	4,056.7	5,140.0	6,401.5	7,497.0	8,582.5
EBITDA	701.4	753.7	887.4	1,001.6	1,111.2
Core Net Profit	310.4	331.8	351.3	401.4	463.0
Core EPS (IDR)	96	103	109	125	144
Core EPS Growth (%)	47.0	6.9	5.9	14.3	15.4
P/E 15F (x)	15.9	14.9	14.1	12.3	10.7
P/E 16F (x)	15.7	13.2	11.1	11.3	11.0
P/BV (x)	2.5	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.2
ROAE (%)	16.6	13.1	10.9	11.3	11.7
Net Dividend Yield (%)	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.2	12.1	9.1	8.4	7.8