2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_St_Lucia_Request_for_Disbursement_under_the_Rapid_Credit_Facility_and_Emergency_Natural_Disaster_Assistance_36页_673kb

Summary of St. Lucia's Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility and Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance

Core Content

This document outlines St. Lucia's request for financial assistance under the IMF's Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance (ENDA) following the impact of Hurricane Tomas in October 2010. The report includes a staff analysis, a debt sustainability assessment, a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director.

Main Points

Hurricane Impact

• Hurricane Tomas struck St. Lucia on October 30–31, 2010, causing significant damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and the tourism sector.
• Preliminary damage estimates are at US$336 million, or 34% of GDP.
• The banana sector and tourism industry were particularly affected, with US$45 million in export losses.
• The tourism sector, which was in its high season, faced a marked decline in activity.

Economic Performance Before the Hurricane

• Economic activity declined by 3.6% in 2009, but was expected to grow by 1.7% in 2010 due to a rebound in tourism.
• Inflation remained moderate at 2.7% in September 2010.
• The fiscal deficit was projected to increase slightly in FY 2010/11 to 4.3% of GDP, and the public debt to rise to 79.1% of GDP.

Policy Response and Challenges

• The authorities are addressing the hurricane's impact through grants and external concessional financing, as they lack fiscal flexibility due to high public debt.
• They have committed to revenue reforms, including a property tax in early 2011 and a VAT by April 2012.
• They also plan to implement public expenditure reforms, such as freezing the civil service wage bill at 11% of GDP and launching a formal public sector investment program.
• Structural reforms are being pursued to support private sector growth and poverty reduction, including the establishment of a Single Regulatory Unit and credit union legislation.

Access and Capacity to Repay

• The authorities requested a disbursement equivalent to 35% of quota, i.e., SDR 5.36 million (US$8.22 million).
• This includes SDR 3.83 million under the RCF and SDR 1.53 million under ENDA.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to temporarily widen to 6.3% of GDP in FY 2010/11 and 6.1% in FY 2011/12, increasing public debt to 80.6% of GDP.
• The debt-to-GDP target of 60% is set for 2020, and the authorities remain committed to achieving it.

Balance of Payments and External Sector Impact

• The external current account deficit is expected to widen significantly in 2011, reaching 17% of GDP.
• The overall balance of payments deficit is projected at 3.7% of GDP in 2011, driven by reconstruction-related imports and banana crop damage.
• The IMF disbursement is expected to cover 20.5% of the financing gap and serve as a catalytic tool to attract support from other institutions.

IMF Engagement and Support

• The Executive Board approved a RAC-ESF drawing of 45% of quota in 2009.
• The staff supports the RCF/ENDA request, citing the severity of the damage, urgent balance of payments needs, and the authorities' commitment to fiscal consolidation.
• The next Article IV consultation is tentatively scheduled for end March to beginning of April 2011.

Key Information

• Hurricane Impact: Severe damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism; estimated losses of US$336 million (34% of GDP).
• Economic Recovery: Expected to grow by 4.1% in 2011 due to ongoing reconstruction.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Currently at 79.1% in FY 2010/11, with a target of 60% by 2020.
• Financing Sources: Includes CDB (US$0.2 million), RCF/ENDA (SDR 5.36 million), CARICOM Development Fund (US$4.1 million), and World Bank (US$5 million).
• Policy Measures:
  • Property tax (early 2011)
  • VAT (April 2012)
  • Civil service wage freeze (11% of GDP)
  • Public expenditure reforms
  • Structural reforms to support private sector growth and reduce poverty

Conclusion

The IMF disbursement is crucial to support reconstruction efforts and maintain macroeconomic stability. The authorities are committed to fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and structural reforms, despite the risks posed by high public debt and vulnerability to future shocks. The staff believes the request is justified and supports the RCF/ENDA access as a key component of the recovery strategy.