2025-06-12-花旗集团-PAN银行（BPAN4）_巴西潘银行（Banco_PAN）（BPAN4.SA）模型更新_12页_431kb

CITI Research: Banco PAN (BPAN4.SA) - Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

• Estimate Adjustment: Downward revision of 2025/2026 estimates by -4% and -3% due to cautious origination and lower growth prospects.
• Cost of Risk: Slightly higher due to increased portfolio contribution from vehicles and consumer finance.
• Rating and Target: Maintains Neutral/High Risk rating with an R$8.50 target price ($8.10 prior), based on sustainable ROE of 18%.
• Key Assumptions: Uses a DDM model with cost of equity at 15% and terminal growth rate of 5.0%.

Key Financial Estimates

Metric	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
Net Interest Income (R$M)	9,004	10,858	13,461	16,644
EPS (R$)	0.67	0.85	1.09	1.32
ROE (adjusted)	10.3%	13.2%	16.6%	18.3%

Valuation

• Market Cap: R$5,088M / US$919M.
• Dividend Yield: 6.3%.
• Expected Total Return: 8.4%.

Risks

• High Risk: Elevated volatility, low liquidity, and uncertainty in asset quality amid deteriorating delinquencies.
• Upside Catalysts: Improved asset quality, Mosaico integration, and stronger banking customer engagement.
• Downside Risks: Further asset quality deterioration, integration delays, and intensified competition.

Summary Highlights

• Analyst: Brian Flores, CFA.
• P/BV: 1.3x (stabilizing over time).
• Cost/Income Ratio: 58.7% in 2025E, indicating efficiency improvements.
• Emphasis on spread products and ROE focus for growth.