爱立信移动报告（2021年11月）（英）-40页_4mb

报告摘要

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution and future of mobile technology over the past decade, emphasizing the transformative impact of 5G and the broader digital transformation. It highlights how mobile technology has reshaped society, business, and daily life, with a focus on subscription growth, traffic trends, and emerging use cases such as 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Industry 4.0 applications.

Key Trends and Forecasts

5G Growth

5G subscriptions are expected to overtake 4G by 2027, with 4.4 billion subscriptions globally.
5G will account for 49% of all mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027.
5G penetration will be highest in North America at 90% by 2027.
5G subscriptions will grow faster than 4G, due to early device availability, lower prices, and strong demand in key markets like China and North America.

Mobile Broadband Dominance

Mobile broadband subscriptions currently make up 84% of all mobile subscriptions.
Smartphone subscriptions are expected to increase from 6.3 billion in 2021 to 7.7 billion in 2027, representing 86% of all mobile subscriptions.
Fixed broadband subscriptions are projected to grow at 4% annually, while FWA subscriptions are expected to grow at 17% annually, reaching 800 million users by 2027.

Traffic Growth

Mobile data traffic has increased 300 times since 2011.
Smartphones and video content are the main drivers of traffic growth.
By 2027, the average monthly data traffic per smartphone is expected to reach 35GB.

IoT and 5G

Massive IoT will account for 51% of all cellular IoT connections by 2027.
FWA will enable broadband access for over 800 million people by 2027.
Private networks are playing a growing role in enabling Industry 4.0 applications, especially in sectors like mining, manufacturing, and logistics.

Regional Insights

Region	5G Subscription Forecast (2027)	5G Penetration	Key Observations
North America	410 million	90%	Rapid 5G commercialization, C-band spectrum allocated for consistent user experience
Western Europe	410 million	83%	4G is declining, 5G adoption accelerating
Latin America	210 million	44%	5G is expected to be the dominant radio access technology, with significant potential for economic recovery and social inclusion
Sub-Saharan Africa	10%	25%	Mobile broadband will grow to 78% of mobile subscriptions by 2027
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)	210 million	25%	4G will be the dominant technology until 2026, after which 5G will take over
GCC	65 million	80%	5G will dominate the region, with 96% of mobile subscriptions being broadband
India	500 million	39%	4G will decline, with 5G subscriptions expected to grow rapidly
Central and Eastern Europe	41%	41%	4G will remain dominant, but 5G will see significant growth
North East Asia	1.6 billion	72%	Strong 5G investment and widespread adoption

Disruptive Events

2015: A US service provider introduced zero-rated unlimited data for popular video services, leading to a global traffic surge.
2017: Competitive 4G pricing in India significantly boosted smartphone adoption and traffic usage.
2018: China's aggressive 5G rollout and competitive offerings led to a sharp increase in global mobile traffic.

Future Outlook

5G will drive innovation in service packaging and enable new business models.
Digital transformation will be accelerated by 5G and private networks, especially in industrial settings.
FWA will play a key role in closing the digital divide, especially in rural and underserved areas.
Emerging technologies such as mirror worlds, hyperconnectivity, and AI will further shape the mobile landscape.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the rapid evolution of mobile technology over the past decade, from the early days of 4G to the current 5G boom. It underscores the importance of 5G in driving future growth, innovation, and economic recovery, especially in regions like Latin America where digital inclusion is a priority. The report also emphasizes the role of network efficiency, device availability, and market dynamics in shaping the future of mobile communications.

Key Contributors

Executive Editor: Patrik Cerwall
Project Manager: Anette Lundvall
Editors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson
Forecasts: Richard Moller
Co-authors: Rachit Saksena (Telia), Dave Lu (Far EasTone), Ilyas Celik (stc)

Methodology and Additional Information

Methodology: Detailed in the report, focusing on data collection and analysis from global operators and market trends.
Glossary: Available for understanding technical terms.
Global and Regional Key Figures: Presented in charts and tables for clarity.

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