20260923-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_4页_441kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM), focusing on recent market movements, new issues, and macroeconomic news affecting credit instruments. It also includes analyst comments and important disclosures for investors.

Market Update

• Asia IG and HY: Market was quiet with light flows.

  • HWQCUS '29s: Tightened 10bps from RO at T+70bps.
  • CPDEV/ZHHFGR: Under better selling.
  • GENTMK Perps/RAKUTN 8.125 Perp: Down 0.2-0.3pt.
  • EHICAR '29/FAEACO Perp/NWDEVL 4.8 Perp: Down 0.3-0.4pt.

• SOCGEN: The new USD1.5bn 8% AT1 bonds were priced at 8.0%, tightened from IPT at 8.25%.

  • The new SOCGEN 8 Perp is expected to trade modestly inside SOCGEN 7.125 Perp.
  • The first call date is 29 Mar 2033, with a reset spread of 5yrUST+3.102%.
  • The reset spread is slightly higher than the 294.6bps of SOCGEN 7.125 Perp.

• SOFTBK:

  • Media reported over USD20bn in early interest for a jumbo high-yield bond sale.
  • SOFTBKs were unchanged this morning.

• Market Trends:

  • Markets opened modestly firmer in higher-yielding space, reflecting overnight positive sentiment.
  • The move faded into London as selling re-emerged across European AT1s.
  • Front-end rates volatility: Active cross-trading between yield buyers and spread sellers in '28-'29 paper.
  • POSCO family curves: Tightened by 2-4bps across 5-10yr.
  • KR securities: DAESEC/NHSECS/HYUSEC tightened by 1-2bps.
  • NSINTW '42: Struggled to gain traction after pricing at +190bps.
  • NSINTW '41: Widened by 3bps.
  • Other TW lifer T2s: Widened by 1-3bps.
  • China IG: Traded firmer with spreads unchanged to 2bps tighter.
    • MEITUA belly: Better buying led the move.
    • LENOVO/KUAISH: Under better selling.
  • Southeast Asia: Solid PB demand for KBANK '36, tightened by 2bps.

• USD LGFVs: Continued to face selling pressure for issues yielding no more than the high-5% range (spreads inside c100bps).

• CNH credit: Broadly stable to marginally firmer, supported by cross-border demand for SOE and corporate names.

  • RLCONS '36: Edged 0.1-0.2pt higher.
  • CHGRID new issue: Attracted interest.
  • CNH TMT names: Attempted to move higher but faded amid limited onshore buying.
  • CNH LGFVs: Broadly stable as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays.

Top Movers (Last Trading Day)

Macro News Recap

• S&P, Dow, Nasdaq: Mixed performance on Tuesday.
  • S&P: -0.00%
  • Dow: -0.36%
  • Nasdaq: +0.45%
• UST yields: 2yr UST yield retreated. 2/5/10/30 year UST yields were at 4.71%/4.83%/4.96%/5.29%.

Analyst Comments

• SOCGEN 8 Perp: Expected to trade modestly inside SOCGEN 7.125 Perp due to its shorter first-call profile and higher reset spread.
• Preferred European AT1s: UK and EU G-SIBs with strong capital generation and regulatory buffers.
• Buy Recommendations:
  • BACR 4.375 Perp: Solid capital buffers, track record of calling AT1s on first call date.
  • INTNED 3.875 Perp: Similar to BACR, with a shorter first-call profile and lower mod duration.

Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced)

Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

Onshore Primary Issuances

• Yesterday: 166 credit bonds issued with RMB174bn raised.
• Month-to-date: 1,664 credit bonds issued with RMB1,714bn raised, a 11.8% yoy increase.

News and Market Color

• Macau Casino Resorts: Over half of the 36 luxury hotels flagged full for at least 5 nights during the Golden Week.
• Fosun: Aims to upsize USD800mn-equivalent loan in syndication from USD520.9mn-equivalent for the Clear Water Bay project.
• UOL Group: No certainty over potential Hong Kong hotel deal.
• Vanke Overdue Loans: Chinese banking regulators advised banks not to label overdue loans as non-performing.

Important Disclosures

• Investment Risks: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• No Individual Advice: CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• No Liability: CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred from reliance on the report.
• Use of Information: The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.

Disclaimer by Jurisdiction

• UK: Report is provided only to persons falling within specific categories under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
• US: Report is for distribution to "major US institutional investors" only. Not for general public.
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to legal responsibilities only where required by law.