战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-s-June-12-Elections_-Will-Erdogan-Maintain-His-Ascendance__7页_254kb

Summary of the Turkey Update: June 12, 2011 Elections

Core Content

The document analyzes the political landscape in Turkey leading up to the June 12, 2011 general elections, focusing on the Justice and Development Party (JDP) and its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It outlines the key dynamics between the JDP, the Republican People's Party (RPP), and the National Action Party (NAP), as well as the role of the Kurdish issue in shaping the election outcomes.

Main Parties and Their Prospects

Justice and Development Party (JDP)

• Incumbent Government: The JDP has been in power for over eight years and is expected to win its third consecutive general election.
• Election Strategy: Erdogan is seen as the central figure, using his personal appeal, economic achievements, and nationalist rhetoric to secure support.
• Presidential Ambitions: The election is framed as a referendum on Erdogan's leadership and his long-term goal of transitioning Turkey to a presidential system, which he envisions as a way to consolidate power.
• Constitutional Agenda: A two-thirds majority in the TGNA would allow the JDP to bypass a referendum for a new constitution, a key objective for Erdogan.
• Internal Party Control: Erdogan has reshuffled his party's leadership and candidate list, emphasizing loyalty over political effectiveness.

Republican People's Party (RPP)

• Opposition Role: Under Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the RPP has been attempting to reposition itself as a credible opposition.
• Strategic Shift: Kilicdaroglu has avoided the previous RPP focus on secularism and instead criticized the JDP's authoritarian practices, including surveillance and indefinite detentions.
• Kurdish Appeal: He has sought to attract Kurdish voters by opposing the JDP's hardline stance on the Kurdish issue, positioning the RPP as an alternative to the JDP and the Peace and Democracy Party (PDP).
• Electoral Prospects: The RPP is expected to gain some ground, possibly reaching the symbolic 30% threshold, which would make it a serious rival to the JDP.

National Action Party (NAP)

• Threshold Challenge: The NAP is struggling to secure the 10% threshold needed for parliamentary representation, making its success a critical factor in the election.
• Scandal Impact: A major scandal involving secretly recorded tapes led to the withdrawal of several NAP candidates, weakening its position.
• Internal Divisions: The NAP's leader, Devlet Bahceli, has faced internal challenges and criticism, and the party's future in the TGNA remains uncertain.

Key Issues and Trends

• Electoral Polarization: The election is expected to deepen the divide between the JDP and the opposition, potentially leading to a de facto two-party system.
• Kurdish Discontent: The JDP's handling of the Kurdish issue has led to growing disillusionment, with the PDP and Kurdish independents gaining traction.
• Erdogan's Leadership: His campaign has been characterized by a strong focus on personal leadership and the success of the JDP, while downplaying foreign policy issues.
• RPP's Transformation: Kilicdaroglu has reformed the RPP, distancing it from its past image and positioning it as a more modern, secular opposition.
• Uncertainties: Despite the JDP's lead in polls, the outcome remains uncertain due to factors such as voter turnout, the NAP's performance, and Kurdish support.

Conclusion

The June 12, 2011 elections represent a pivotal moment for Turkey's political future. The JDP's success will not only determine its continued dominance but also its ability to pursue a constitutional reform that could lead to a presidential system. The RPP, under Kilicdaroglu, has shown potential to become a stronger opposition, while the NAP's fate remains uncertain. The Kurdish issue continues to be a significant factor, with the PDP and Kurdish independents challenging the JDP's narrative. The election outcome is likely to reflect deepening political polarization and the consolidation of a two-party system, with Erdogan's leadership and vision playing a central role in the campaign.