战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights,-Volume-VII,-Issue-1_6页_177kb

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS is a publication by the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), providing analysis on political and economic developments across the Americas. The January 2008 issue covers a range of topics, including Canada's role in Afghanistan, Mexico's NAFTA reforms, education initiatives in Central America, and political and economic challenges in South America.

Main Events and Key Issues

Canada in Afghanistan

• A special panel led by John Manley recommended an indefinite extension of Canada's mission in Afghanistan, contingent on two conditions: additional NATO troops in Kandahar and the purchase of medium-lift helicopters and UAVs by Canada.
• The report could serve as a bargaining chip for Canada, but Prime Minister Harper's willingness to withdraw troops and face international criticism remains uncertain.
• Public opinion in Canada is largely against the war, with opposition parties demanding full withdrawal by February 2009.
• The Liberal Party, with low poll ratings, may not challenge the minority Conservative government, potentially leading to political compromise.

Mexico and NAFTA

• The final and most sensitive chapter of NAFTA came into effect on January 1, 2008, lifting tariffs on corn, rice, beans, milk, and sugar.
• This led to protests in Mexico, particularly in Ciudad Juárez and Tuxtla Gutiérrez.
• The Mexican Congress, including members from the National Action Party (PAN), urged President Calderón to amend NAFTA, but he refused, citing its benefits to the country.
• The PRI is open to discussing Pemex reforms, including constitutional changes, but will not support full privatization.
• Pemex faces declining production and is projected to fall below 2.1 million barrels per day by 2016 if deep-water exploration is not pursued.

Central America

• A regional pact on education reform, the Education Decalogue 2021, was signed by the presidents of Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and the Dominican Republic.
• The pact outlines a 14-year plan to improve education access, quality, institutional effectiveness, and investment.
• The agreement calls for each country to increase its education spending as a percentage of GDP.
• Despite the pact, concerns remain about the financial capacity of the signatories to meet these commitments.

South America

Venezuela

• President Hugo Chávez threatened to nationalize farms and milk processors due to domestic food shortages.
• The government has not met demand for milk, with less than 10% of needs fulfilled.
• PDVSA plans to invest $15.6 billion in oil and create a subsidiary for food production and distribution.
• Analysts believe Chávez's move may be necessary to maintain support among the poor, but it could further weaken PDVSA's oil production capabilities.

Colombia

• Colombia faces challenges from Chávez's threats and economic pressures, including a potential decline in oil production.
• The country is also dealing with ongoing FARC-related issues, including hostage situations and internal security concerns.
• Despite these challenges, Colombia's security forces are better trained, and the economy shows potential for growth if a free-trade agreement with the U.S. is realized.

Ecuador

• President Rafael Correa aims to increase oil production while enhancing state control over the industry.
• The government is negotiating new contracts with foreign oil companies, requiring them to pay high taxes on oil prices above $24 per barrel.
• Oil production has declined since 2005, and the country is facing economic growth challenges.
• Tensions with the oil industry persist, with companies like Occidental Petroleum seeking damages from the government.

Paraguay

• Education Minister Blanca Ovelar received the official endorsement from the Colorado Party to run for president in April 2008.
• Her candidacy reflects a shift in Paraguayan politics, moving away from the dominance of the Colorado Party.
• The election is expected to be highly competitive, with Fernando Lugo and potential spoilers like General Lino Oviedo vying for attention.
• A successful female president could signal a new era in Paraguayan politics, potentially ending the "coloradismo" monopoly.

Argentina and Bolivia

• Argentina announced plans to build a new gas pipeline (GNEA) to Bolivia, aiming to increase gas delivery to meet domestic and regional needs.
• The pipeline project, estimated at $1.9 billion, will require significant investment and is expected to be completed by 2010.
• Argentina faces gas shortages and is dependent on Bolivian supply, which is insufficient to meet current obligations.
• Former President Néstor Kirchner is reorganizing the Partido Justicialista to create a more agile structure, possibly ending the role of the judicially appointed interventor.

Contributing Authors

• Peter DeShazo – Director, Americas Program
• Tanya Primiani – Assistant Director
• Lowell Fleischer – Senior Associate
• Phillip McLean – Senior Associate
• Johanna Mendelson Forman – Senior Associate
• Carlos M. Regúnaga – Argentina Office
• Sarah McCune – Intern-Scholar
• Peter Gosselin – Intern-Scholar

Conclusion

The January 2008 issue of HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS highlights the complex interplay of political and economic challenges across the Americas. From Canada's strategic dilemma in Afghanistan to Mexico's NAFTA reforms, Central America's education initiatives, and South America's energy and political transitions, the region is marked by both progress and persistent issues. The publication remains a nonpartisan source of analysis, focusing on the broader implications of these developments.