20260904-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_463kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

📈 Core Market Overview

• TME '31 widened 1bp from RO at T+60.

• TME '36 widened 2bps from RO at T+95.

• BMRIIJ 7.35 Perp rose 0.5pt from RO at par.

• Asia IG space was quiet with light flows.

• Profit taking occurred on front-end names.

• China TMTs were 1-2bps wider.

• LGFV remained under better buying flows.

• Rates eased 2-3bps from overnight highs.

• China/HK IG faced selling pressure on 10yr benchmarks (BABA, TENCNT, KUAISH, MEITUA, HKTGHD, LINREI 36), which widened 2-3bps.

• TW lifers drifted 1-2bps wider on two-way flow in CATLIF/FUBON.

• Japan saw SUMIBK hold firm despite two-way flows in '29 fixed-rate and FRN tranches, alongside continued buying in NORBK and secondary bank FRNs.

• Southeast Asia had mixed performance for new BBLTB tranches, with '31s 2bps wider and '36s 4bps tighter from RO at T+105/T+130, respectively. However, selling occurred on its sub curve across '36s/40s.

• Korea credits were broadly unchanged, with KDB '29/'31 paper hovering around reoffer.

💰 Higher-Yielding Space

• AT1s, insurance subs, and high-beta perps recovered by 0.1-3pt as the macro tone stabilized.
• SUMIBK 6.95 Perp and BNP 7.125 Perp led the move.
• Flows were skewed toward better buying from PBs, with some potential short covering in the 6-10yr bucket.
• Chinese AMs continued to seek front-end, high-coupon paper.
• China/HK names WESCHI 28-29 rose 0.3-0.5pt.
• EHICAR 26/NWDEVL Perp down 0.3-0.4pt.
• LGFV strength persisted, with higher-yielding CNH paper compressed by another 20bps.
• Quality Shandong names reached the mid-5% yield area.
• Very long-end names compressed toward the mid-6% area, supported by robust RM and HF demand.
• AMs continued to look for onshore AAA-guaranteed paper around the 3% yield handle.
• Flows were heavily skewed toward buying, with existing holders reluctant to release risk.
• Offer-side liquidity was thin and often gappy.

📊 Top Movers of Last Trading Day

📊 Macro News Recap

• S&P (+1.06%), Dow (+1.18%), and Nasdaq (+1.14%) were higher on Thursday.
• US Aug'26 S&P Global Services PMI was 56.5, lower than the market expectation of 56.8.
• US Aug'26 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices/PMI were 72.6/55.4, respectively, higher than the market expectation of 70.0/54.1.
• UST yield was lower yesterday, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 4.34%/4.52%/4.77%/5.25%.

📋 Desk Analyst Comments

📋 INCLEN/INGPHL/RPVIN

• 1QFY27 earnings momentum supports stronger cash generation.
• Maintain buy on INCLEN 4.5 04/18/27 due to diversified income sources and generation mix, despite structural subordination risk.

📋 ReNew Energy (ReNew)

• Credit profile is supported by resilient operating cash generation, a growing renewables portfolio, and its scaled market position as India's second-largest renewable operator by installed capacity after Adani Green.
• INCLEN 4.5 04/18/27 is preferred within the ReNew complex.
• 1QFY27 results showed strong performance:
  • Revenue up 14.3% yoy to INR44.6bn.
  • Adj. EBITDA up 11.7% yoy to INR30.4bn.
  • Profit before tax up 7.9% yoy to INR8.343bn.
  • Operating cash flow up 81.6% yoy to INR21.6bn.
  • Capex remained manageable at INR26.4bn.
  • Cash and bank balances increased 10.5% qoq to INR76.8bn.
• ReNew targets 1.6-2.4GW of construction completion in FY27, which should support further EBITDA expansion.
• Proposed take-private by the consortium of founder Sumant Sinha and CPP Investments at USD7.02/share is potentially supportive over the medium term.
• Post-privatization, ReNew will remain subject to bond reporting obligations, though disclosure may be less frequent and less extensive than under current listing requirements.

📋 1QFY27 Financial Highlights

📝 Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced)

📝 Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

• No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today.

📰 News and Market Color

• Onshore primary issuances: 77 credit bonds issued yesterday, totaling RMB161bn. Month-to-date: 281 credit bonds issued, RMB330bn raised, a 314.9% yoy increase.
• EHICAR: Media reported eHi may fully redeem USD97.1mn EHICAR 7 09/21/26 at maturity.
• LNGFOR: Media reported Longfor prepared sufficient funds to repay RMB1.3bn bank loan due later Sep'26.
• NSINTW: Nan Shan Life 1H26 insurance revenue up 3% yoy to TWD62.7bn, but operating profit down 41.7% yoy to TWD38.5bn.
• WESCHI: S&P expected West China Cement to increasingly benefit from expanding overseas operations, which may offset weakness in the China market.
• ZYAMCL: Fitch affirmed Zhongyuan AMC BBB rating and revised the outlook to positive.

📞 Contact Information

• Fixed Income Department
  • Tel: 852 3900 0801 / 852 3761 8919
  • Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk

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• No trading in the covered stocks within 30 days before the report's issue date.
• No trading in the covered stocks within 3 business days after the report's issue date.
• No financial interests in the covered companies.

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