20171114-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_5页_494kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of market performance and investment outlook for various sectors in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, including A-Share, Hong Kong ADRs, property, and China Gas. It also includes insights from mutual fund and private equity fund managers, as well as sector-specific recommendations and risk assessments.

Market Performance (Key Indexes)

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	EPS 2017 (%)	EPS 2018 (%)	P/E 2017	P/E 2018
HSI	0.2	2.5	32.6	22.5	8.8	13.3	12.2
HSCEI	-0.5	1.4	24.4	9.1	9.6	8.9	8.2
MXCN	0.0	3.0	52.1	26.3	14.7	15.6	13.6
SHSZ300	0.4	5.3	24.7	18.6	14.5	15.8	13.8
SHCOMP	0.4	1.7	11.1	26.8	13.0	14.9	13.2
SZCOMP	0.3	0.4	3.9	51.9	25.4	26.6	21.2
INDU	0.1	2.5	18.6	15.7	9.4	18.7	17.1
SPX	0.1	1.2	15.5	22.7	10.0	19.4	17.6
CCMP	0.1	2.3	25.5	54.5	12.1	24.0	21.4
UKX	-0.2	-1.6	3.8	161.6	6.2	15.0	14.1
NKY	-0.3	5.5	16.8	37.4	12.2	19.1	17.0

Key observations:

The HSI and MXCN indices show the highest YTD growth, with MXCN increasing by 52.1%.
SHSZ300 and SHCOMP also show strong YTD gains.
UKX and NYK show mixed performance, with negative daily changes but positive YTD.
CCMP and INDU have shown high EPS growth in 2017, though their 2018 EPS growth is expected to slow.

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

HK Ticker	Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700	TENCENT	387.6	0.57	50.2	0.63
1398	ICBC	6.2	-0.48	15.8	-0.39
857	PETROCHINA	5.5	-1.44	70.2	-1.76
939	CCB	6.8	-0.59	17.4	-0.57
941	CHINA MOBILE	79.6	-0.93	51.2	-0.78
5	HSBC	75.7	-0.40	48.3	-0.94
2318	PING AN	75.6	-0.33	19.7	0.72
3988	BANK OF CHINA	3.8	0.00	12.3	-0.08
2628	CHINA LIFE	27.2	-1.99	17.4	-1.91
386	SINOPEC	5.7	-1.21	73.5	-1.30

TENCENT shows the highest daily growth in ADRs, while PETROCHINA and CHINA LIFE show the most negative changes.
Most major Chinese banks and companies are seeing slight declines in their ADRs, with some exceptions like PING AN and BANK OF CHINA showing positive changes.

A-Share Market Outlook

Key Themes

Industry leaders are likely to maintain strength, with a structural increase in market risk appetite.
Manufacturing, tech, and environmental sectors are expected to remain strong.
Northbound investors are selling blue-chip stocks, and institutional investors are adjusting their positions.

Mutual Fund Manager Views

Bullish View #1: Financial deleveraging in 4Q17 may cause some hiccups, but the market is expected to continue upward trend due to improved balance sheets.
Bullish View #2: Focus on pharmaceuticals, financials, transportation, and F&B due to cheap valuations and stable cash flows.
Bullish View #3: Highlight companies with growth potential in market share or competitive advantage.
Neutral View: Suggest holding consumer and TMT stocks, as they remain strong despite some stocks being overvalued.

Private Equity Fund Manager Views

Focus on e-commerce companies like S.F. Holding and Midea Group due to recent Singles' Day performance.
Brokerage regulation changes may benefit companies like East Money Information.
Companies offering bonus issues or share capital conversions may see price strength.
Foreign ownership in A-shares has increased, suggesting a focus on stocks with significant stake increases by QFII investors.

Property Sector Outlook (2018)

Contract sales are expected to decline in 2018 due to restrictive policies and rising land prices.
EPS growth is projected to be 10–20% YoY, driven by solid sales and improved margins.
Limited catalysts for share price movement, so focus on developers exceeding sales and earnings expectations.
Developers in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area are likely to benefit from property price appreciation.
Residential prices in the region are expected to double over the next 5–8 years.

China Gas (384 HK) Outlook

LNG import MoU with Delfin aims to diversify gas sources and secure long-term supply.
Annual gas sales volume is expected to reach 40bn m3 in 2022, with 10% from Delfin.
Earnings forecasts for FY2017/18–FY2019/20: HK$1.212, HK$1.469, HK$1.686.
Stock valuation is currently at 20.4x, 16.8x, and 14.7x.
Key risks include slower progress in coal-to-gas substitution, winter gas shortages, and subsidy issues.

Investment Strategy

Buy rating for developers with strong land banks in the Bay Area.
Buy rating for Yuexiu Property and Gemdale P&I due to their strong performance and growth potential.
Focus on stock picking given the lack of sector-wide catalysts.
Hold large-cap banking stocks due to improved asset quality.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Description
Buy	Outperform benchmark by >15%
Accumulate	Outperform benchmark by 5–15%
Hold	Relative performance between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Underperform benchmark by >5%

Sector Rating	Description
Positive	Outperform benchmark by >10%
Neutral	Relative performance between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Underperform benchmark by >10%

Analyst Certification & Disclosure

All views expressed reflect the personal opinions of the analysts.
No remuneration is tied to specific recommendations.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares in the mentioned companies or have investment banking relationships.
The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.

Disclaimer

The report is not a recommendation for investment.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the materials.

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