欧洲央行-全球利润转移的证据以及跨时间的全球证据（英）-2025_84页_2mb

Global Evidence on Profit Shifting Within Firms and Across Time

This working paper from the European Central Bank provides the first comprehensive, firm-level dataset estimating profit shifting across 100 countries over 2009-2020. Key findings include:

• Methodology: Uses nonparametric estimation to capture firm-year-specific profit-shifting elasticities, avoiding OLS assumptions.
• Magnitude: Global profit shifting reached approximately $700 billion USD in 2017, dominated by industries like pharmaceuticals, petroleum, and IT.
• Routes: Ireland acts as a central conduit, with profit shifting often routed through tax havens like Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and UAE.
• Policy Implications: Reinforces the need for a global minimum corporate tax rate to curb tax base erosion.
• Database Contribution: 2.2 million firm-year observations enable analysis of profit shifting patterns within and across firms, validating models with Monte Carlo simulations.

Contribution to Literature: Addresses endogeneity and nonlinear effects in profit-shifting estimations, providing a richer framework for future policy analysis.