2025-05-23-Jefferies-德克斯户外（DECK）_模型更新第四季度艰难_HOKA未达预期；因不确定性取消官方财年指引_10页_166kb

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Equity Research Summary

Rating: Hold
Price Target: $110.00 (-13% from current price)

Key Analysis Points:

• Q4 Performance: Q4 EPS beat expectations by 67% (+$1.00 vs. $0.60), but revenue only exceeded consensus by 1% y/y. HOKA missed its FY22 guidance by 4% (-$23M), while UGG was slightly above. Overall margin expansion driven by UGG full-price selling, offset by higher costs.
• FY26 Outlook: Official FY26 earnings guidance is withdrawn due to macro uncertainty. Provided framework shows mid-teens HOKA growth (though below prior guidance) and moderate (MSD) UGG growth. Q1 FY26 guidance ($890M–$910M rev, <$0.79 EPS) is below consensus.
• HOKA: Top driver of growth, but slowed from prior quarters (Q4: ~14% y/y). Doors expanding, brand awareness up. DTC moderated due to promotional activity. Expected to outpace UGG and have strong wholesale ahead of DTC in FY26.
• UGG: Core business still profitable, but growth slowed (Q4: ~14% y/y at DTC). Missed product availability hurt performances. Focused on expanding male offerings and year-round assortment.
• Macroc & Tariffs: Downside risk due to economic uncertainty and potential margin pressure from tariffs impacting COGS (est. $150M FY26). Pricing power helps, but may absorb part of the cost.
• Investment Thesis & View: Favors brand strength, management execution, and balance sheet. However, prefers a better entry point given slowing HOKA growth, macro headwinds, and tariff pressures. PT $110 reflects expectations:
  • Sustained UGG momentum (mid-single digit growth with improved GM%).
  • Lower SG&A leverage.
  • Controller-like execution.
• Risks: Normalized growth, multiple recalculation, tariff mitigation shortfall, UGG promotions, HOKA execution risk, fashion risk, inflation.
• Catalysts: Sustained UGG momentum, fewer UGG promotions, HOKA door expansion, fashion trends, potential M&A.

Quantitative Summary:

• Current Price: $126.09
• Market Cap: $19.1B
• Current Yr High: $223.98, Low: $93.72
• PT: $110.00; Upside (PT +41% to $178), Downside (PT -49% to $64) based on FY27 EPS scenarios.