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Summary of "Sustainable Spectrum Pricing to Boost Indonesia's Digital Economy"

Core Content

Indonesia is a rapidly growing digital economy in the Asia Pacific region, with the government's digital roadmap for 2021–2024 emphasizing the importance of ICT infrastructure, particularly 4G and 5G networks. The country is at the beginning of its 5G journey, with current coverage reaching 15% of the population (as of Q3 2023), compared to 97% for 4G. The Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (Kominfo) plans to expand mobile spectrum availability by auctioning bands such as 700 MHz, 2.6 GHz, 3.5 GHz, and mmWave in the 26 GHz band, which could more than double the total mobile spectrum supply.

Key Challenges

• Spectrum Shortage: Indonesia currently has 452 MHz of mobile spectrum, with a significant shortage in mid-bands (1 GHz to 7 GHz), which are essential for reliable high-speed mobile broadband in urban areas.
• High Spectrum Costs: Annualised, WACC-adjusted spectrum costs to recurring cellular revenue are currently at 12.2%, higher than the APAC (8.7%) and global (7.0%) medians.
• Rising Costs Despite Falling ARPU: Spectrum costs have increased more than five-fold since 2010, while average revenue per user (ARPU) has dropped by 48%, from $10.92 in 2010 to $5.66 in 2023. This is due to annual inflation adjustments and population growth in the spectrum fee formula.

Impact of Spectrum Costs on 5G Rollout

GSMA Intelligence has evaluated the potential impacts of different spectrum cost scenarios on 5G network rollout, adoption, and socio-economic benefits from 2024 to 2030:

• In the baseline scenario, 5G is expected to contribute over $41 billion (IDR 650 trillion) to Indonesia's GDP by 2030, with 80% coverage and 41% penetration.
• If spectrum costs continue to rise, 5G coverage could be 20 percentage points lower, and adoption could lag by over 2 years.
• The highest cost scenario could result in a cumulative GDP loss of $14 billion (IDR 216 trillion) due to reduced 5G adoption and slower network rollout.

Recommendations

To support the growth of Indonesia's digital economy and ensure sustainable 5G development, the following recommendations are proposed:

1. Set Reserve Prices Conservatively: Reserve prices for upcoming spectrum auctions should be set below market value to allow for price discovery and reduce the risk of unsold spectrum.
2. Review Spectrum Fee Formula: The formula for calculating annual spectrum fees (BHP IPFR) should be evaluated to ensure it reflects current market conditions and provides appropriate long-term incentives.
3. Develop a Clear Spectrum Roadmap: A comprehensive spectrum roadmap should be established to address both short-term and long-term needs, especially for mid-bands in the 2025–2030 timeframe. This will help operators plan investments, secure financing, and develop effective deployment strategies.

Conclusion

High spectrum costs in Indonesia are a major barrier to 5G development and digital transformation. Sustainable spectrum pricing is essential to ensure operators can invest in advanced technologies, improve network quality, and unlock socio-economic benefits. The government must take proactive steps to manage spectrum costs, ensuring they remain aligned with market realities and support Indonesia's digital growth objectives.