2024-06-10-世界银行-全民就业-开启肯尼亚包容性增长_肯尼亚就业诊断（英）_84页_9mb

报告摘要

Kenya experienced robust economic growth (5% annual GDP from 2010 – 2019), reducing poverty but with rising spatial and social inequalities. The demographic transition presents a "youth dividend," but job quality has worsened post-2016, with 70% in lower-tier informal employment (down from 81% in 2016).
Growth has been less inclusive: lower skilled workers, rural youth, and women face higher underemployment and discouragement. Productivity gains lagged peers, with low skilled jobs growing less.

High female labor force participation (69% in 2019) masks vulnerability: 32% of women are NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training), and inactivity rose 5 pp due to lack of suitable jobs.
Geography and education gaps: Rural areas lag in education and employment, with NEDI counties seeing slower LFP growth. Skills gaps persist, particularly in digital/commercial skills.
Youth transition is difficult: 25% NEET at age 26 (up from 17% in 2019). Underemployment is high among youth, women, and rural workers.

Firms: Over 91% of MSMEs are informal micro firms (85% in services). Kenya has high firm creation, but expansion remains limited, with NEDI counties understaffed.
Productivity: Formal micro firms are more productive (e.g., better access to electricity, higher sales). Low-productivity sectors (agriculture, trade) dominate.
-Constraints: Access to finance, infrastructure, digital skills, and regulatory burdens limit firm growth. Regulatory hurdles cost firms >6 hours/month, affecting ~30% (6-9 mn) adults.

Demand-Side: Spatial mismatch in job availability, limited infrastructure (roads, electricity), high tax/registry fees.
Supply-Side: Skills gaps (basic literacy, digital literacy), low female workforce participation due to family responsibilities.
Intermediation: Kenya’s ALMPs are fragmented and lack monitoring, limiting reach (mostly urban/formal sector).

Long-Term: Strengthen human/cognitive & socioemotional skills; prioritize early childhood and TVET reform; reduce capital intensity barriers in manufacturing; reform regulations for FDI and competition.
Short-Term: Promote youth mobility/intermediation; tailor ALMPs to NYota/youth; improve employer productivity via skills/business training; combine finance/mentorship for MSMEs.
Data: Conduct timely, comprehensive firm/individual surveys for evidence-based policy.

展开完整摘要