2015年-世界发展银行全球_Mozambique_Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment___Risk_Prioritization_126页_5mb

Summary of Mozambique: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive risk assessment of Mozambique's agricultural sector, focusing on production, market, and enabling environment risks. It is part of the World Bank Group's efforts to support the G-8's New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition by identifying key risks and suggesting interventions to improve agricultural resilience.

Main Goals of the Assessment

• To provide a robust analytical foundation for the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA) and the National Investment Plan for the Agrarian Sector in Mozambique (PNISA).
• To incorporate agricultural risk perspectives into decision-making processes.
• To build the capacity of local stakeholders in risk assessment and management.

Key Risks Identified

Production Risks

• Drought: The most significant agricultural risk, with catastrophic consequences. It results from low rainfall or irregular seasonal patterns, such as late onset or early cessation of rain.
• Flood: The second-most important risk, often occurring during the wet season (December–February). It is caused by heavy rainfall and leads to river overflows, damage to irrigation infrastructure, and localized impacts.
• Cyclones: Common along the coastline, particularly during the wet season. They primarily damage farm infrastructure and tree crops like cashews, coconuts, and fruit trees.
• Pests and Diseases: Major threats, especially for crops like cassava, which is vulnerable to Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) and Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD).

Market Risks

• Price Volatility: Both domestic and international price fluctuations are significant, especially for crops like rice and maize.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Affects the cost of imports and the competitiveness of local producers.
• Input Volatility: Uncertainty in the availability and cost of agricultural inputs.
• Counterparty Risk: Risk associated with trade partners and supply chain disruptions.

Enabling Environment Risks

• Legal, Institutional, Fiscal, and Policy Uncertainty: Weakness in the enabling environment can hinder agricultural development, though it is relatively stable.
• Political Instability and Regulatory Risk: Potential threats to agricultural activities and investments.

Key Findings

• Agriculture contributes 31.8% to GDP and employs 81% of the labor force.
• The majority of agricultural production is rain-fed, making it highly sensitive to climate change.
• Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, with severe negative impacts on agricultural productivity.
• Drought and flood are the two most critical risks, followed by pests and diseases, and price volatility.
• Food insecurity is closely linked to the occurrence of these risks, leading to spikes in the number of food-insecure people.

Impact of Risks on the Economy

• The agricultural sector has experienced negative growth during major shocks such as the civil war (1985–86, 1990–92), drought (1994), and flood (2000).
• Since 2000, growth has remained positive, but agricultural risks have still had a significant adverse impact.
• Price volatility is a concern, especially for maize, rice, and cotton, with the 2006 white maize price spike attributed to drought and the 2008–09 spike due to the global food crisis.

Risk Prioritization and Management

• Drought and flood are the top two risks, with pest and disease outbreaks and price volatility following closely.
• Risk mitigation is highlighted as the most needed and ignored intervention, offering the highest returns for addressing both short- and long-term risks.
• Risk transfer (e.g., insurance) is limited in applicability and implementation due to Mozambique's context.
• Coping solutions, such as social safety nets, are important but do not address the root causes of agricultural risk.
• Water management is identified as a key area for intervention, including:
  • Irrigation: Can reduce drought risk and manage flood risk, though current schemes are inconsistent.
  • Flood control infrastructure: Needs significant investment and expansion.
  • Improved water management practices: Can help mitigate water deficits and enhance resilience.

Potential Interventions

The assessment outlines three main intervention categories that could yield the greatest risk management benefits:

1. Water Management

   • Improved irrigation
   • Flood control infrastructure
   • Enhanced water management practices

2. Market and Policy Interventions

   • Strengthening market information systems
   • Promoting integrated pest management (IPM)
   • Enhancing access to extension services

3. Capacity Building and Institutional Support

   • Strengthening public-private partnerships
   • Developing climate-resilient crop varieties
   • Building local stakeholder capacity in risk assessment and management

Challenges and Limitations

• Data limitations: Inconsistent and fragmented data on production losses and risk events.
• Resource constraints: Limited public and private investment in risk management.
• Implementation challenges: The need for significant investment in irrigation and flood control infrastructure.
• Climate change adaptation: Requires careful consideration of long-term impacts on crop yields and land suitability.

Conclusion

The agricultural sector in Mozambique is highly vulnerable to production, market, and enabling environment risks, with drought and flood being the most critical. Addressing these risks requires a holistic approach, combining risk mitigation, capacity building, and institutional reforms. While risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance have limited applicability, improved water management and climate-resilient practices are crucial for enhancing long-term agricultural resilience. The assessment emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and decision filters to prioritize the most impactful risk management strategies given resource constraints.