联合国-《2021世界经济中期形势与展望》报告：预计今年全球经济增长5.4_（英文）-2021.5-31页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2021

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the global economic situation and prospects as of mid-2021, focusing on the recovery from the pandemic's impact. It highlights the uneven progress in vaccination and its implications for economic recovery, the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on women, and the varying growth outlook across different regions and sectors.

Main Points

Global Economic Recovery

Global Growth Prospects: The global economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2021, up from the previous forecast of 4.7%.
United States and China: These two largest economies are expected to grow by 6.2% and 8.2% respectively, driven by rapid vaccinations, fiscal stimulus, and economic reopening.
Europe: Projected to grow by 4.1% in 2021, which is insufficient to offset 2020 losses.
Developing Countries: Most remain below pre-pandemic levels, with South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America facing the most fragile outlook. The Least Developed Countries are expected to grow by 4.0% in 2021.
Vaccine Disparities: Only about 1 in 10 people globally have received a vaccine, with Africa at 1 in 100. Vaccine nationalism and hesitancy threaten the inclusiveness of the recovery.

Pandemic's Impact on Women

Disproportionate Impact: Women, especially in healthcare, caregiving, and essential service sectors, have been at the forefront of pandemic response but have also suffered the most in terms of job and income losses.
Labour Force Participation: The global labour force participation rate dropped by 2.2 percentage points in 2020, with a sharper decline for women.
Informal Employment: Women are overrepresented in informal employment, which is highly vulnerable to economic shocks. Informal employment accounts for ~70% of all jobs in Africa, South Asia, and East Asia.
Gender Gaps: The pandemic has exacerbated gender inequality in employment, education, and income. Women entrepreneurs faced business closures, and gender-based violence increased.
Policy Recommendations: Targeted policies are needed to support women, including investment in education, health, and digital infrastructure, as well as flexible work arrangements.

Regional Economic Outlook

Developed Economies: Expected to grow at 5.0% in 2021, with US, Japan, and EU showing varying degrees of recovery.
Economies in Transition: Projected to grow at 3.3% in 2021, with Russia at 3.0%.
Developing Countries: Showed a 6.1% growth in 2021, but fiscal constraints and debt sustainability remain concerns.
Africa: Growth is expected to be 3.6% in 2021, with Southern Africa lagging at 2.2%.
East Asia: China is expected to grow by 8.2%, while South Asia is projected to grow by 6.9%.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is at 4.3% in 2021, with Brazil at 3.0% and Caribbean at 4.3%.
Commodity-Dependent Economies: Suffered sharp contractions in 2020 but are now benefiting from rising commodity prices and strong demand from China.
Tourism-Dependent Economies: Face uncertain recovery due to travel restrictions and slow normalization of international travel.

Key Information

Global Poverty: The pandemic is estimated to have pushed 114.4 million people into extreme poverty, with 57.8 million being women and girls.
Fiscal Stimulus: Global fiscal stimulus reached $16 trillion as of March 2021, equivalent to ~19% of global GDP.
Central Bank Actions: The four major central banks expanded their balance sheets by ~$10 trillion, helping to stabilize financial markets.
Investment Trends: Global investment contracted in 2020, with FDI declining by 42%. A moderate recovery is expected in 2021, but cautious investor sentiment and high corporate debt may limit it.
Trade Recovery: Global trade is expected to grow by 9.4% in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, but regional disparities persist. China and East Asian economies led the recovery, while Africa, Western Asia, and CIS lagged.
Financial Stability: Rising asset prices and leverage have widened the gap between financial markets and the real economy. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to interest rate hikes and financial tightening.

Conclusion

The global economy is on a recovery path, but the uneven distribution of vaccines and economic support poses a risk of an inclusive and resilient recovery. Women and girls have been disproportionately affected, necessitating gender-sensitive policies to ensure equitable progress. Developing countries, especially those reliant on commodities or tourism, will need targeted interventions to boost growth and reduce inequality.