2016年-ECB欧洲央行_Country-specific_recommendations_for_fiscal_policies_under_the_2016_European_Semester_4页_103kb

Box 5: Country-specific Recommendations for Fiscal Policies under the 2016 European Semester

Core Content Overview

The European Commission issued country-specific fiscal policy recommendations on 18 May 2016 as part of the 2016 European Semester. These recommendations focus on ensuring compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) for the 18 non-programme euro area countries. The recommendations are intended to guide the preparation of draft budgetary plans for 2017, which must be submitted to the Eurogroup and the European Commission by mid-October.

The European Commission's spring 2016 forecast indicated that the euro area's aggregate fiscal stance would be slightly expansionary in 2016 and 2017. This reflects both the use of fiscal space by countries that have already achieved their medium-term budgetary objective (MTO), such as Germany, and the failure of many countries, including those with high government debt levels, to meet their structural consolidation commitments under the SGP.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Structural Consolidation Shortfalls

• Risk of non-compliance: Many euro area countries are expected to fall short of their structural consolidation requirements.
• Countries with deficits above 3% of GDP: Portugal, Spain, and France are not expected to achieve structural consolidation in 2016–2017.
• Reduced requirements: For some countries, structural effort requirements have been lowered due to flexibility granted for structural reforms, investment, pension reforms, and refugee-related costs.

2. Structural Effort Requirements (2016–2017)

3. Recommendations for Member States

• Countries not at MTO: These are advised to implement further measures to meet their SGP commitments.
• Countries with debt above 60% of GDP: Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Finland are recommended to use windfall gains (e.g., lower interest payments) to reduce deficits.
• Germany: Should increase public investment, particularly in infrastructure, education, research, and innovation.
• Netherlands: Should focus public expenditure on research and development.
• Ireland and Slovenia: The EDP deadlines were abrogated by their 2015 deadlines.
• Cyprus: The EDP was abrogated one year ahead of its 2016 deadline.
• Portugal and Spain: EDP deadlines were extended by one year, with a structural effort requirement of 0.25% of GDP in 2016.
• Malta: Despite significant deviations from SGP requirements in 2015, no significant deviation procedure was recommended.

4. Governance and Flexibility

• The SGP has been updated to include more flexibility for structural reforms, investment, and refugee-related costs.
• The Commission emphasized the importance of a legally sound, transparent, and consistent application of the SGP.
• Major improvements to the EU's fiscal governance framework were made in 2011 and 2013, including the debt rule and the significant deviation procedure.

5. Challenges and Concerns

• The Commission's approach to the SGP under the 2016 Semester has raised questions about the transparency and comprehensiveness of the assessments.
• Previous fiscal shortfalls were not considered as aggravating factors in the debt rule assessments.
• The decision to extend EDP deadlines for Portugal and Spain was postponed to early July, which may raise concerns about the automaticity of the SGP's enforcement.