2017年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Economic_Update_November_2017___Managing_Water_Wisely_86页_16mb

Tanzania Economic Update: Managing Water Wisely

Core Content

This report, the tenth edition of the Tanzania Economic Update, presents a comprehensive analysis of the country's current economic situation and outlines the urgent need for improved water resource management to support sustainable development. It is prepared by the World Bank Group and includes insights from the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) and Water Global Practices.

Main Points and Key Information

Part One: The State of the Economy

Key Messages

• Economic Growth Softened: Tanzania's growth rate declined to 6.8% in the first half of 2017, compared to 7.7% in the same period in 2016. Despite this, it remained among the strongest performers in the region.
• Inflation and Exchange Rate Stability: Inflation has remained low and stable, and the Tanzanian shilling has maintained its value.
• Current Account Deficit Narrowed: The decline in imports offset the slight drop in exports, leading to a narrowing of the current account deficit.
• Fiscal Policy Challenges: Domestic payment arrears (around 6% of GDP) and a low development budget execution rate (62% in 2016/17) threaten the credibility of the budget.
• Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Monetary easing has not yet translated into improved credit conditions for the private sector.
• Poverty Reduction: The poverty rate has fallen, but the number of poor people remains high.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Short to Medium Term Outlook: The growth outlook is favorable, but risks include further deterioration in business sentiment due to policy uncertainty and a decline in development budget execution.
• External Risks: Potential oil price rebounds, volatile global financial conditions, and reduced demand from Tanzania's main export partners pose external risks.

Near-Term Policy Priorities

• Improve Budget Implementation: Clear verified payment arrears to private sector contractors and suppliers.
• Speed Up VAT Refunds: Enhance liquidity for private enterprises.
• Secure External Financing: Mobilize additional external resources, particularly on concessional terms, to support capital expenditures.

Medium-Term Reforms

• Strengthen the Business Environment: Reduce regulatory compliance costs and improve infrastructure services and skills.
• Encourage Private Investment: Implement structural reforms to boost private sector participation and economic growth.

Part Two: Managing Water Wisely

Why Water Matters

• Water Stress: Tanzania's per capita water resources have dropped below 1,700 cubic meters, making it water stressed. Seasonal and geographic variations exacerbate this issue.
• Economic Impacts: Water availability affects sector growth, economic resilience to shocks, and human productivity. Agriculture accounts for 89% of total water use, while other sectors like energy, industry, and tourism also heavily rely on water.
• Climate Change: Droughts and floods, which are increasing due to climate change, are causing significant economic damage, especially in agriculture.

Key Messages

• Urgent Need for Reform: Tanzania must improve water resource management to support its development goals.
• Multi-Sector Coordination: Strong coordination across sectors is essential to manage water use trade-offs effectively.
• Pricing and Valuation: Water should be valued and priced to reflect its scarcity and different uses, including social and environmental needs.
• Data and Institutional Capacity: Improved data collection and institutional capacity are critical for informed water management decisions.

Options for Improvement

1. Enhanced Coordination and Investment Prioritization:

   • Strengthen coordination among ministries and ensure multi-sectoral plans align with budget allocations.
   • Equip water management bodies with the necessary information, resources, and authority.

2. Appropriate Valuation and Pricing of Water:

   • Set prices that reflect water's increasing scarcity and varying values to different users.
   • Create disincentives for water waste, such as higher pricing in areas where water is scarce.

3. Improved Data and Decision-Making:

   • Invest in data collection and analysis, including the use of satellite technology.
   • Enhance the availability and quality of water quality and groundwater data.

4. Clarified Institutional Mandates:

   • Ensure clear and complementary mandates for water management institutions.
   • Provide adequate resources to these institutions to carry out their functions effectively, including monitoring and enforcement.

Conclusion

Tanzania has the potential to achieve its goal of becoming a semi-industrialized, middle-income nation by 2025. However, to realize this vision, the Government must address both macroeconomic challenges and improve water resource management. By implementing coordinated reforms, enhancing institutional capacity, and ensuring appropriate pricing and data collection, Tanzania can better manage its water resources and support sustainable economic growth.