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Citi Upside Catalyst Watch on SWKS/QRVO

Citigroup Research Summary (June 10, 2025)

Qorvo (QRVO)

• Key Message: Citi adds an upside 90-day catalyst watch on QRVO due to potential better-than-expected Jun/Sep quarter results from forward-pulled Apple demand caused by tariffs. Apple contributes ~47% to QRVO’s FY25 sales.
• Valuation: Target Price $67, based on a 10x P/E, below the three-year average of 13x.
• Investment Strategy: Rated Sell due to concerns over slowing 5G adoption, customer concentration risk, and AI demand impact.
• Upside Risks: Better global smartphone demand, higher share gains, manufacturing synergies.
• Downside Risks: Slower smartphone/5G adoption, increased competition, lower margins/ASPs.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

• Key Message: Citi adds an upside 90-day catalyst watch on SWKS similarly, citing forward-pulled Apple demand. Apple contributes ~66% to SWKS last reported quarter sales.
• Valuation: Target Price $63, based on ~13x P/E for 2026 EPS.
• Investment Strategy: Rated Sell due to RF semiconductor competition, high Apple concentration, and AI demand limitations.
• Upside Risks: Faster China recovery, new product gains, margin targets.
• Downside Risks: Declining smartphone/5G adoption, intensified competition, lower margins/ASPs.

Key Observations

• Catalyst: July-September Quarter (Jun/Sep-Q) earnings driven by tariff-induced demand shift in Apple supply chain.
• Historical Performance: Apple’s RF supplier stocks (like SWKS/QRVO) historically outperform AAPL around iPhone launch events.
• Market Context: Short-term positive catalyst, but long-term concerns persist over competitive pressures in RF semiconductors and dependency on Apple.

Disclaimer

Citi may have conflicts of interest with SWKS/QRVO and other providers may be involved. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.