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Catalyst Watch Tracker Summary (May 28 – June 3, 2025)

Core Content

The Catalyst Watch Tracker is a weekly report by Citi Global Research that highlights new, closed, and expired Catalyst Watch calls across different regions and sectors. It also includes performance metrics for these calls over the past year-to-date (YTD). Catalyst Watch calls are short-term directional predictions on specific stocks, reflecting the expectations of fundamental analysts regarding catalyst-driven share price movements over 30 or 90 days. These calls are independent of the analysts' 12-month fundamental ratings and target prices, and may not align with the longer-term view. The report also incorporates the Crowding Composite score, a tool developed by the Global Quantitative Research team to measure the level of market crowding for individual stocks. Higher crowding composite scores indicate more crowded trades, which may limit the potential for marginal investors, while lower scores suggest less crowded opportunities that could attract more new investors.

Main Points

New Catalyst Watch Calls

Asia

• Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI.BO): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expiry 1-Sep-25
  Catalyst: Strong LFL performance and positive fundamentals from product innovation, delivery fee waivers, and dine-in revival. The stock has underperformed Nifty50 by 13% YTD.

• Great Wall Motor (2333.HK): Buy, Upside, 30-day, Expiry 28-Jun-25
  Catalyst: Improved Russia export sales, expected earnings rebound, and increased domestic NEV market share due to sales of Tank 300 and Xiaolong Max.

• Yadea Group (1585.HK): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expiry 2-Sep-25
  Catalyst: In-line 1H25E volume, strong NP growth, and potential market share gains in 2026E due to regulatory changes.

• Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK): Buy, Upside, 30-day, Expiry 3-Jul-25
  Catalyst: Attractive dividend yield and potential share repurchase following AGM.

• Petronet LNG (PLNG.BO): Sell, Downside, 90-day, Expiry 31-Aug-25
  Catalyst: Potential disappointment in 1QFY26 utilisations due to early monsoons, high LNG prices, and delays in infrastructure projects.

• XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL.JK): Sell, Downside, 90-day, Expiry 1-Sep-25
  Catalyst: Earnings estimates may be revised downward due to Smartfren's consolidation and complex network integration.

CEEMEA

• Public Power Corporation SA (DEHr.AT): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expiry 26-Aug-25
  Catalyst: Regulatory confirmation of a 7% WACC could support FY25 EBITDA guidance. Improved wind speeds in Romania also aid in achieving FY25 guidance.

Latin America

• Vesta Real Estate Corporation SAB de CV (VESTA.MX): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expiry 27-Aug-25
  Catalyst: Potential USMCA renegotiation in September could reduce uncertainty and boost tenant investment activity. Vesta is a growth-oriented company with plans to increase GLA by 46% by 2030.

North America

• Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX.N): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expiry 28-Aug-25
  Catalyst: Improved freight market conditions, potential rate inflection, and strong management position in one-way irregular route freight.

• Applovin (APP.O): Buy, Upside, 30-day, Expiry 28-Jun-25
  Catalyst: Potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index rebalancing, expected on June 6, 2025.

Closed Catalyst Watch Calls

• Prudent Corporate Advisory Services (PRUE.NS): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Closed 3-Jun-25
  Catalyst: Favorable market sentiment and strong performance relative to benchmarks.

• Cooper Companies Inc (COO.O): Buy, Upside, 30-day, Closed 30-May-25
  Catalyst: Strong Q2 results, exceeding consensus, with a more conservative revenue guide.

• ResMed Inc (RMD.AX): Buy, Downside, 30-day, Closed 2-Jun-25
  Catalyst: Negative catalyst watch closed after Q3 results.

• Capstone Copper Corp (CS.TO): Buy, Downside, 30-day, Closed 29-May-25
  Catalyst: Copper price expected to pullback due to tariffs and demand concerns.

Expired Catalyst Watch Calls

• Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLTRF.L): Buy, Downside, 90-day, Expired 28-May-25
• Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK): Buy, Downside, 30-day, Expired 30-May-25
• NIO (9866.HK): Buy, Upside, 30-day, Expired 28-May-25
• Flat Glass (6865.HK): Sell, Downside, 30-day, Expired 31-May-25
• SK Hynix (000660.KS): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expired 2-Jun-25
• Tencent Holdings (0700.HK): Buy, Upside, 90-day, Expired 28-May-25

Performance Metrics

Absolute and Relative Call Performance (YTD)

Hit Rates

Key Information

• Catalyst Watch calls are short-term directional predictions and do not necessarily align with the longer-term fundamental ratings.
• The Crowding Composite score is used to assess the level of market participation in individual stocks. Higher scores may indicate more crowded trades, which can affect investor behavior and stock performance.
• The report emphasizes the importance of considering Catalyst Watch calls as one of many factors in investment decisions.
• The performance data highlights the effectiveness of the Catalyst Watch in generating returns, with varying degrees of success across regions and sectors.