2025-06-02-Bernstein-全球内存_内存追踪报告（5月）_价格仍在上涨_DRAM涨幅更大_NAND涨幅较小_27页_663kb

Global Memory Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of the global memory market trends in May 2025, focusing on DRAM and NAND price movements, contract prices, and their implications for investors. It highlights the impact of supply chain dynamics, demand pull-in, and tariff uncertainties on the market outlook.

Main Points

DRAM Market Overview

• Spot Price Trends:

  • PC DDR4 spot prices increased by 50% MoM, driven by the end-of-life (EOL) of DDR4.
  • Server DDR4 spot prices rose by 12% MoM.
  • DDR5 prices remained mostly stable for both PC and Server.

• Contract Price Trends:

  • Conventional DRAM contract prices in 2QCY25 are expected to rise by 5.4% QoQ, earlier than previously forecasted.
  • PC DDR4 contract prices rose by 10–15% QoQ, while DDR5 saw a 4% MoM increase.
  • Server DDR4 contract prices surged by 17% MoM due to Chinese CSPs stockpiling before supply cuts.
  • Server DDR5 contract prices increased slightly, with a 56% premium over DDR4, but demand for high-density modules like 96GB and 128GB remains strong.

• Market Outlook:

  • DDR4's EOL and HBM demand are expected to support stronger ASP in 2QCY25.
  • However, downside risks exist for 2HCY25 due to tariff uncertainties and demand pull-in.
  • PC OEMs are likely to continue using DDR4 due to the 90-day tariff exemption, potentially leading to a faster transition to DDR5 later in the year.

NAND Market Overview

• Spot Price Trends:

  • NAND wafer spot prices remained mostly stable in May, with a slight dip of 0.6–0.7% MoM.
  • eMMC/UFS prices had a significant downturn in the previous quarter, but are expected to recover by 6–9% QoQ in 2QCY25.

• Contract Price Trends:

  • NAND wafer contract prices rose by 1–3% MoM, with a 19% increase compared to 1QCY25.
  • eMMC/UFS contract prices are expected to increase by 6–9% QoQ, but may remain flat in 3QCY25 due to demand pull-in and tariff risks.
  • The overall NAND ASP increase in 2QCY25 is likely to be moderate due to the exclusion of SSDs in the samples, which have steadier prices.

• Market Outlook:

  • NAND vendors are expected to focus on technology upgrades and cost reduction.
  • Tariff-related demand pull-in and supply constraints are key drivers of recovery.
  • YMTC is highlighted as a structural risk that could impact NAND market dynamics.
  • Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are less vulnerable due to their strong DRAM-driven earnings and HBM demand.

Key Information

• Investment Implications:

  • Samsung Electronics is rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 82,000.
  • SK hynix is rated Outperform with a price target of KRW 240,000.
  • Micron is rated Outperform with a price target of US$120.00.

• Market Weighting:

  • The weighted average for DRAM includes 37% Mobile, 39% Server, 10% PC, and 15% Specialty DRAM.
  • For NAND, the weighted average is based on 40% eMMC/UFS and 60% NAND wafer.

• Additional Factors:

  • HBM 12hi ramp-up is expected to boost DRAM ASP.
  • Tariffs remain a key uncertainty for end demand, especially for NAND.
  • CXMT is upgrading to LPDDR5, which may cause supply tightness.

Summary

• DRAM prices increased significantly in May due to DDR4 EOL and HBM demand, with conventional DRAM expected to rise 5.4% QoQ in 2QCY25.
• NAND prices showed a moderate recovery, with wafer prices up 19% compared to 1QCY25, but uncertainties remain for 2HCY25.
• Investor ratings for Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron remain Outperform, reflecting strong DRAM and HBM demand.
• Tariffs and supply constraints are key factors affecting both DRAM and NAND market dynamics, with DDR4 and NAND facing downside risks in the coming quarters.