20140811-穆迪服务-Summer_lull__Subdued,_but_less_risky_global_growth_likely_22页_1mb

Moody's Global Risk Perspectives Summary: 2014-15

Core Content

Moody's Global Macro Outlook for 2014-15 highlights a subdued but less risky global growth environment. Financial markets have shown resilience, with asset prices rising and volatility low, despite mixed economic developments and political tensions.

Main Views

Global Growth Outlook

• Global GDP growth is expected to remain below average in 2014, at around 2.8%, before rising to 3.2% in 2015.
• Advanced economies (G20) are projected to grow at 1.8% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015, still below pre-crisis levels.
• Emerging markets (excluding China) are forecasted to grow at 2.1% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015, well below pre-crisis averages.
• China is expected to grow at 6.5-7.5% in both 2014 and 2015, with growth likely towards the higher end in 2014.
• Argentina and Russia are forecasted to be in recession in 2014 and stagnate in 2015 due to economic challenges.

Key Drivers of Growth

• United States: Expected to grow at 2% in 2014 and 3% in 2015. Strong job creation and business investment are key drivers. However, the growth potential may be overestimated due to weak consumer and corporate spending.
• United Kingdom: Shows a positive growth surprise, with GDP growth expected at 2.5-3% in 2014 and 2015. Strong employment and business investment support this, though productivity and inflation risks may slow growth in the medium term.
• Euro Area: Growth is expected to rise from -0.4% in 2013 to 1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015. However, low growth is expected to persist due to ongoing deleveraging, which could lead to entrenched low inflation and economic and political strain.

Risks to the Outlook

• China: A sharper slowdown in the property sector could lead to substantial GDP declines, which would affect global trade and investor confidence.
• Financial markets: A simultaneous correction across multiple markets could trigger negative wealth effects, higher financing costs, and bank losses, potentially impacting global growth. However, such a scenario is unlikely unless it is sharp, prolonged, and widespread.
• Euro Area: Prolonged low growth risks low inflation and deleveraging pain, with unemployment likely to remain high for several years.

Key Information

• Asset prices have risen despite weak economic data, indicating a temporary disconnect between financial markets and real growth.
• Emerging market PMIs are generally below historical averages, highlighting subdued growth.
• Uncertainty is noted in forecasts for certain countries, such as Argentina, due to revised statistics and economic instability.
• Moody's emphasizes the importance of forecast uncertainty measures, comparing them to historical GDP volatility.
• The report is an update to the May 2014 Global Macro Outlook, reflecting the current state of the global economy and potential risks.

Conclusion

While global growth is expected to remain subdued, the risk profile is lower compared to previous years. The main risks are China's property sector slowdown and widespread financial market corrections, which could have significant global implications. The US and UK are the most likely to show positive growth, while the Euro Area continues to face structural challenges. Overall, the outlook is cautious, with a focus on gradual recovery and moderate growth in the medium term.