20150825-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_14页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including equity indices, sector performance, ETF trading activity, and market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities. It also highlights key stocks and investment opportunities based on recent market trends and analysis.

Main Market Trends

• HSI (Hang Seng Index):

  • Closed at 21,252, down 5.2% on the day and 10.0% year-to-date (YTD).
  • Seriously oversold in the current market conditions.

• HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index):

  • Closed at 9,602, down 5.8% on the day and 19.9% YTD.
  • Broke 5-year uptrend support, indicating a significant bearish trend.

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Closed at 3,210, down 8.5% on the day and 0.8% YTD.
  • Stronger performance compared to other indices, with a 33.0% increase in the last month.

• Global Markets:

  • Experienced a selling rout, with the VIX Index reaching a four-year high.
  • Fed funds futures suggest a potential rate hike deferral to March 2024, but this may not significantly ease short-term volatility.
  • U.S. markets also declined, with the Dow Jones losing over 1,000 points and NASDAQ falling sharply.
  • Oil prices hit a 6.5-year low, and gold prices dropped due to concerns over China's economic slowdown.

Key Stocks in Focus

SPDR GOLD (2840.HK)

• Last Close: HK$861.00
• Entry: HK$833.00
• Target: HK$891.00
• Stop-loss: HK$800.00
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -3.8% / 7.1% / -4.6% / -9.5%
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 0.01mn shares
• Performance:
  • Indicates an emerging reversal of the downtrend.
  • Gold holdings increased to 677.83 tons.
  • China's gold reserves increased by 604 tons over six years, making up 40% of the total.
  • Buy if it retreats to HK$833, targeting HK$891 on the 250-day moving average.

Today's Top Picks

1. CIFI HOLD (884):

   • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$1.40
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$1.60
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$1.32
   • Reason: Expected sales revenue growth in 2H15 and share repurchase plans.

2. BJENT WATER (371):

   • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$5.01
   • Purchase Price: HK$4.90
   • Target Price: HK$5.55
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$4.65
   • Reason: Positive outlook from the 13th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes environmental protection.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors (Last Day):

  • Logistics: -1.7%
  • REITs: -3.2%
  • Local Property: -4.3%
  • Local Banks: -4.4%
  • Marine: -4.7%
  • Handset and related accessories: -4.7%
  • IPP (Independent Power Producers): -4.8%
  • Consumer Staples: -4.9%
  • Toll Road: -5.0%
  • HK Consumer Group: -5.4%
  • Chinese Telecoms: -5.5%
  • Environmental and New Energy: -5.5%
  • Aluminum: -5.5%
  • Chinese Banks: -5.7%
  • Medical: -5.7%

• Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:

  • Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
  • REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), etc.
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), etc.
  • Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), etc.
  • Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), etc.
  • Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), etc.
  • IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), etc.
  • Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), etc.
  • Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), etc.
  • HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), etc.
  • Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
  • Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), etc.
  • Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), etc.
  • Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), etc.
  • Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), etc.

Valuations and Forward P/E

Market Data Highlights

Best and Worst Performers (Previous Day)

• Best Performers:

  • NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): +29.7%
  • HUADIAN FUXIN -H (816.HK): +6.1%
  • CRTG (269.HK): +3.3%
  • SITC (1308.HK): +2.3%
  • AAC TECHNOLOGIES (2018.HK): +2.3%

• Worst Performers:

  • MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): -22.4%
  • TCL MULTIMEDIA T (1070.HK): -18.7%
  • RENHE COMMERCIAL (1387.HK): -18.6%
  • KUNLUN ENERGY (135.HK): -18.0%
  • WANDA HOTEL DEV (169.HK): -17.2%

HSCI Volume Filter

• KUNLUN ENERGY (135.HK): High volume increase, significant short-selling activity.
• NORTH MINING SHA (433.HK): High volume, significant price movement.
• SOHO CHINA (410.HK): High volume increase, significant short-selling activity.
• PETRO-KING (2178.HK): High volume, significant price movement.
• RENHE COMMERCIAL (1387.HK): High volume, significant short-selling activity.

Most Short Sold Stocks

• SUN ART RETAIL (6808.HK): High short-selling turnover, significant percentage of total.
• TSINGTAO BREW-H (168.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• WYNN MACAU LTD (1128.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• TCL COMM TECH HL (2618.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• ICBC-H (1398.HK): High short-selling turnover.
• PING AN-H (2318.HK): High short-selling turnover.

External Market Conditions

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.5822%, down 13.58 bps in 5 days.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.0069%, down 18.56 bps in 5 days.
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.7308%, down 12.47 bps in 5 days.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2444%, up 0.40 bps in 5 days.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3950%, up 0.36 bps in 5 days.
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.8100%, up 10.30 bps in 5 days.

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 93.5420, down 3.6% in 5 days.
  • USD/HKD: 7.7529, no change in 5 days.
  • EUR/USD: 1.1568, up 4.9% in 5 days.
  • USD/JPY: 118.89, up 4.6% in 5 days.
  • GBP/USD: 1.5761, up 0.6% in 5 days.
  • USD/CHF: 0.9340, up 4.6% in 5 days.
  • AUD/USD: 0.7185, down 2.1% in 5 days.
  • NZD/USD: 0.6489, down 1.7% in 5 days.
  • USD/CAD: 1.3276, down 1.6% in 5 days.
  • USD/CNY: 6.4046, down 0.2% in 5 days.
  • USD/CNH: 6.4963, down 0.9% in 5 days.

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • CRB Index: 186.2, down 5.2% in 5 days.
  • Comex Gold: 1,154.5, up 3.4% in 5 days.
  • Comex Silver: 14.800, up 0.1% in 5 days.
  • Nymex WTI Crude: 38.27, down 10.2% in 5 days.
  • ICE Brent Crude: 42.72, down 12.5% in 5 days.
  • LME Copper: 4,951, down 3.2% in 5 days.
  • LME Aluminum: 1,521, down 3.0% in 5 days.
  • CBT Wheat: 506.75, up 2.5% in 5 days.
  • CBT Corn: 371.00, up 1.3% in 5 days.
  • CBT Soybean: 895.75, down 1.9% in 5 days.

A-share Premium to H-share

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2823: IShares FTSE A50 (HK$9.46, -11.92%, -20.77%)
• 2822: CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (HK$10.82, -12.46%, -20.32%)
• 2800: Tracker Fund HK (HK$21.90, -5.19%, -10.61%)
• 2828: HS H-share ETF-H (HK$98.15, -5.81%, -12.29%)
• 3188: ChinaAMC 300-HKD (HK$38.65, -10.12%, -21.04%)
• 82822: CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (HK$8.97, -12.40%, -20.62%)
• 2827: CSI 300 China (HK$29.00, -10.12%, -21.04%)

Key Takeaways

• Global market volatility is high, with a selling rout and increased risk aversion.
• HSI and HSCEI are dramatically down, indicating market stress.
• Gold is seen as a safe haven, with SPDR Gold ETF showing potential for rebound.
• A-shares are performing better than H-shares in some sectors.
• ETFs are heavily traded, showing diversified investment interest.
• Sector-specific opportunities are highlighted, with Consumer Staples and Environmental and New Energy showing positive outlooks.