2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pakistan_First_Post_47页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/78 on Pakistan

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 18/78 on Pakistan outlines the results of the First Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) Discussions held in December 2017 and concluded by the Executive Board on March 5, 2018. The report provides an overview of Pakistan's economic developments, policy challenges, and the outlook for macroeconomic stability and growth.

Main Economic Indicators

Indicator	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18
Real GDP at factor cost	4.1	4.5	5.3	5.6
GDP deflator at factor cost	4.3	0.6	3.5	5.0
Consumer prices (period average)	4.5	2.9	4.1	5.0
Consumer prices (end of period)	3.2	3.2	3.9	5.4
Broad money (percent change)	13.2	13.7	13.7	14.2
Reserve money (percent change)	9.9	26.5	22.5	18.6
Private credit (percent change)	5.9	11.1	16.6	16.5
Current account balance (in percent of GDP)	-1.0	-1.7	-4.1	-4.8
Gross reserves (in billions of USD)	18.5	12.8
International reserves (in months of next year's imports)	3.2	2.2

Key Economic Developments

Growth Momentum: Economic growth has been strengthening, with real GDP growth expected to reach 5.6% in FY 2017/18, supported by improved energy supply, CPEC-related investments, and strong consumer and investment confidence.
Inflation Control: Inflation has remained contained, with headline inflation at 5.4% in FY 2017/18 and core inflation at 5.5%.
Exchange Rate Adjustments: The authorities allowed a 5% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar in December 2017, though limited exchange rate flexibility continues to be a concern.
Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 5.5% of GDP in FY 2017/18, with risks of a higher deficit due to upcoming general elections.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.8% of GDP in FY 2017/18, driven by surging imports and a decline in exports.
International Reserves: Gross reserves have declined significantly, reaching $12.8 billion in mid-February 2018, equivalent to 2.3 months of imports. Net international reserves are estimated to be negative at -$0.7 billion.
Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs): Continued losses in PSEs have increased fiscal risks, with accumulated arrears reaching PRs 514 billion (1.5% of GDP) by end-December 2017.
Banking System: The banking system remains resilient, with a system-wide capital adequacy ratio of 15.4% in September 2017, well above the regulatory minimum. However, nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios in SME and agriculture sectors remain high.

Main Concerns and Risks

Macroeconomic Stability: The macroeconomic stability gains from the 2013–16 EFF have been eroding, with risks to the outlook increasing due to fiscal and external imbalances.
External Vulnerabilities: Limited exchange rate flexibility and high import growth have led to a significant decline in international reserves and increased external financing needs.
Fiscal Risks: The fiscal deficit is expected to remain elevated, with risks of further widening due to the pre-election period and ongoing PSE losses.
Structural Reforms: There is a need to accelerate structural reforms to reinforce macroeconomic stability, improve competitiveness, and promote inclusive growth.

Policy Recommendations

Monetary Policy: Continue to tighten monetary policy to address inflationary pressures and support external adjustment.
Exchange Rate Flexibility: Enhance exchange rate flexibility to preserve external buffers and improve competitiveness.
Fiscal Discipline: Strengthen fiscal discipline through additional revenue measures and containment of current expenditures, while protecting pro-poor spending.
Structural Reforms: Accelerate structural reforms, including strengthening fiscal federalism, improving the AML/CFT regime, enhancing the business climate, and achieving cost recovery in the energy sector.
Public Sector Reforms: Focus on containing losses in public sector enterprises and addressing circular debt in the power sector.
Debt Management: Exercise caution in phasing in new external liabilities and resume medium-term fiscal consolidation.

Executive Board Assessment

The Executive Board welcomed the authorities' recent efforts to tighten monetary policy and allow some exchange rate adjustment.
They emphasized the need for continued exchange rate flexibility to safeguard external buffers.
The Board urged the authorities to phase out administrative measures that support the balance of payments and focus on structural reforms.
They noted that the fiscal and external imbalances pose significant risks to Pakistan's medium-term capacity to repay the Fund.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and addressing fiscal and external imbalances to ensure sustainable economic growth and development. The authorities are encouraged to continue their efforts to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies, enhance exchange rate flexibility, and implement structural reforms to support long-term growth and resilience.

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