战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-322_6页_84kb

Postwar Iraq Policy Options for Russia Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Ekaterina Stepanova and published by PONARS in November 2003, analyzes the postwar policy options available to Russia in the context of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. It outlines the challenges faced by the international community in stabilizing Iraq and the strategic considerations for Russia in its engagement with the country.

Main Issues and Challenges

• Security Situation:
  The U.S. and its allies face a prolonged and costly guerrilla war in postwar Iraq. The U.S. maintains control over security and economic matters, while the UN is limited to political and legal roles, such as organizing elections and managing reconstruction.

• Economic Reconstruction:
  The U.S. seeks to reshape Iraq's economy according to its own interests, particularly in the oil sector. U.S. companies are expected to benefit from liberalization, privatization, and lucrative contracts, which will ultimately be funded by Iraq's oil revenues.

• UN's Role:
  The UN is positioned to assist in political and legal stabilization, but its influence is limited due to its past involvement in the sanctions regime and the lack of consensus among permanent members to lift sanctions. The lifting of sanctions is seen as a positive step for economic stabilization, but it also undermines the UN's leverage.

• Russia's Position:
  Russia opposed the U.S. military intervention and advocated for a greater UN role in postwar Iraq. It sought to protect its economic interests, including oil contracts and debt repayment, while avoiding full alignment with the U.S.-led occupation.

Policy Options for Russia

There are two main policy options for Russia and other states opposed to the U.S. intervention:

• Damage Limitation Approach:
  This involves cooperation with the U.S.-led occupying forces and authorities to mitigate the negative consequences of the war. Russia aims to participate in postwar economic activities, such as reconstruction and oil production, while offering support to U.S. demands within the UN Security Council.

• Wait-and-See Approach:
  This strategy involves delaying active involvement, hoping that the U.S. might eventually seek broader international cooperation. However, this approach risks allowing Iraq to become a source of regional instability, terrorism, and anti-Western sentiment.

Key Limitations and Risks

• Unequal Economic Terms:
  The postwar economic framework is heavily skewed in favor of the occupying powers, making it difficult for Russia to compete with Western companies.

• Political and Moral Dilemmas:
  Russia's cooperation with the U.S.-led forces may be perceived as a form of legitimization of the illegal military intervention, which could lead to domestic and international backlash.

• Risk of Regional Instability:
  The wait-and-see approach could result in the emergence of Islamic extremism and anti-American resistance, which may threaten regional security and Russia's strategic interests.

Terrorism and Resistance in Postwar Iraq

• Terrorism as a Tool:
  The document argues that terrorism is not a spontaneous reaction but a calculated strategy by a determined opposition. Postwar Iraq has access to technical capabilities (arms, trained personnel) and may develop more sophisticated resistance networks over time.

• Islamic Extremism:
  While Islamic fundamentalism is a potential source of extremism, it is not the sole factor. Domestic sources of radicalism, such as post-Saddam nationalism with anti-colonial elements, are also significant.

• Anti-American Sentiments:
  The U.S. overemphasis on Saddam Hussein has fueled anti-American resistance, even in the absence of WMD. The symbolic removal of Saddam has taken on heightened importance in the context of growing hostility.

Conclusion

• Russia's Role:
  Russia is unlikely to play a central role in postwar Iraq, and its "coyote" tactics (limited involvement, low-risk engagement) reflect this. However, these tactics are not a long-term solution and may hinder the development of a coherent political strategy.

• Combined Threats:
  The combination of Islamic fundamentalism and anti-colonial nationalism presents the greatest threat to U.S. and international interests in Iraq. While terrorism is a growing concern, guerrilla resistance is expected to dominate the security landscape.

• Need for Balance:
  The document emphasizes that both the U.S. and the UN have their own limitations in stabilizing Iraq, and that any solution must balance security, economic, and political interests without imposing foreign models on Iraqi society.