20260824-招银国际-网易云音乐-09899.HK-1H26_review_earnings_decline_on_revenue_deceleration_and_rising_marketing_spending_5页_1mb

NetEase Cloud Music (9899 HK) 1H26 Review Summary

Core Content Overview

NetEase Cloud Music released its first-half of 2026 (1H26) financial results, showing a total revenue increase of 3% YoY to RMB3.96bn, slightly below the Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimate of RMB4.16bn. The growth slowdown was attributed to declining non-subscription music revenue and increased competition in the online music sector. Adjusted operating profit dropped by 12% YoY to RMB797mn, mainly due to a significant rise in sales and marketing expenses (+81% YoY to RMB295mn).

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue Growth:

  • 1H26: RMB3.96bn (+3% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB7,900mn (-6.2% from previous forecast)
  • FY27E: RMB8,254mn (-7.5%)
  • FY28E: RMB8,617mn (-7.8%)

• Gross Profit:

  • 1H26: RMB2,955mn (+0.4% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB2,955mn (-5.2% from previous forecast)
  • FY27E: RMB3,108mn (-7.8%)
  • FY28E: RMB3,296mn (-8.1%)

• Operating Profit:

  • 1H26: RMB797mn (-12% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB1,509mn (-21.6% from previous forecast)
  • FY27E: RMB1,568mn (-26.1%)
  • FY28E: RMB1,721mn (-25.1%)

• Adjusted Net Profit:

  • 1H26: RMB1,714mn (-40.0% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB1,714mn (-19.8% from previous forecast)
  • FY27E: RMB1,815mn (-21.4%)
  • FY28E: RMB1,932mn (-20.9%)

• EPS (Adjusted):

  • 1H26: RMB8.20
  • FY26E: RMB8.20 (-18.9% from previous forecast)
  • FY27E: RMB8.70 (-20.5%)
  • FY28E: RMB9.20 (-20.1%)

• Valuation:

  • Target Price: HK$135.00 (based on 15x FY26E non-GAAP PE)
  • Previous Target Price: HK$245.00 (based on 23x FY26E PE)
  • Current Price: HK$95.10
  • P/S (2026E): 2.2x
  • P/E (2026E): 10.5x

Main Points and Key Insights

• Revenue Deceleration:

  • Online music revenue grew 3% YoY to RMB2.97bn, down from 12% YoY growth in FY25.
  • Membership subscription revenue increased by 5% YoY to RMB2.60bn, driven by subscriber base expansion but offset by a decline in monthly ARPPU.
  • Non-subscription music revenue fell by 6% YoY due to macroeconomic uncertainty and a high base effect.

• Margin Compression:

  • Gross margin expanded to 37.2% in 1H26, aided by operating leverage and recovery in social entertainment revenue.
  • Adjusted operating margin declined by 3.5ppts YoY to 20.1%, as S&M expenses surged.

• User Engagement:

  • The company maintains a highly engaged user community with rising DAU/MAU ratios and increased mobile music listening time.
  • Membership retention and renewal rates improved YoY, indicating stronger user loyalty.

• Content and Innovation:

  • Continued expansion of the content library and product innovations, including the AI generative recommendation model "Climber" and the introduction of "AI-inspired Playlist" to enhance user experience.

Competitive and Market Outlook

• Competitive Pressure:

  • The company faces ongoing pressure from freemium music platforms and other entertainment formats.
  • This is expected to continue affecting revenue growth in the short term.

• Valuation Adjustment:

  • The target price was revised down to HK$135.00 due to competition impacting earnings growth and lower peer valuations.
  • The current valuation offers a safety margin at 10x FY26E PE.

• Forecast Revisions:

  • FY26-28E total revenue forecasts were lowered by 6-8%.
  • CMBIGM estimates are generally lower than the consensus, reflecting a more conservative outlook on growth and margins.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in the online music sector.
• Potential issues with AI-generated music leading to copyright infringement.
• Macroeconomic uncertainties affecting revenue growth.

Analyst Ratings and Recommendations

• Ratings:
  • BUY (Maintained)
  • Target Price: HK$135.00
  • Up/Downside: 42.0%

Share Performance

• 1-month: -20.5%
• 3-months: -16.6%
• 6-months: -39.3%

Shareholding Structure

• NetEase: 59.4%

Stock Data

• Market Cap (HK$ mn): 19,872.2
• Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 121.0
• 52w High/Low (HK$): 294.60/95.10
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 209.0

Financial Summary (Selected Metrics)

• Gross Margin:

  • 1H26: 37.2%
  • FY26E: 37.4%
  • FY27E: 37.7%
  • FY28E: 38.3%

• Operating Margin:

  • 1H26: 20.1%
  • FY26E: 19.1%
  • FY27E: 19.0%
  • FY28E: 20.0%

• Adjusted Net Margin:

  • 1H26: 21.7%
  • FY26E: 21.7%
  • FY27E: 22.0%
  • FY28E: 22.4%

Cash Flow Summary

• Net Cash from Operations:

  • 1H26: RMB1,243mn
  • FY26E: RMB1,243mn
  • FY27E: RMB1,422mn
  • FY28E: RMB1,466mn

• Net Cash from Investing:

  • 1H26: RMB-166mn
  • FY26E: RMB-166mn
  • FY27E: RMB-128mn
  • FY28E: RMB-146mn

• Net Cash from Financing:

  • 1H26: RMB0
  • FY26E: RMB0
  • FY27E: RMB0
  • FY28E: RMB0

Summary of Forecast Revisions

• Revenue: Revised down by 6-8% for FY26-28E.
• Gross Profit: Revised down by 5.2-8.1%.
• Operating Profit: Revised down by 12.3-20.5%.
• Adjusted Net Profit: Revised down by 12.9-21.4%.
• Adjusted EPS: Revised down by 12.3-20.5%.
• Gross Margin: Revised slightly up by 0.4ppts.
• Operating Margin: Revised down by 3.8-4.8ppts.
• Adjusted Net Margin: Revised down by 2.0-3.9ppts.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges from rising competition and marketing costs, NetEase Cloud Music continues to invest in content and user engagement. The company's valuation has been adjusted to reflect these challenges and the broader market context, with a revised target price of HK$135.00. The analysts maintain a BUY recommendation, suggesting potential returns of over 15% over the next 12 months.