2023-03-28-未来能源研究所-车辆属性权衡与美国燃料经济性和温室气体排放标准的分配效应（英）_73页_1mb

Vehicle Attribute Tradeoffs and the Distributional Effects of US Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards
Authors: Benjamin Leard, Joshua Linn, Katalin Springel
Journal: Working Paper 23-04, March 2023

Key Findings

1. Welfare Effects:

   • U.S. fuel economy and GHG standards (implemented between 2012 and 2022) increased social welfare by approximately $83 billion ($1,200 per vehicle-buying household).
   • The majority of welfare gains stem from fuel cost savings, as consumers undervalue these savings (average valuation ratio ≈ 0.22).
   • Fixed costs of technology adoption account for a substantial portion of compliance costs ($6 billion in 2022 standards).

2. Distributional Effects (Progressivity):

   • The standards are progressive (beneficial to low-income households more than high-income households).
   • Key drivers:
     • Low-income consumers have lower willingness to pay (WTP) for fuel cost savings and performance (horsepower)).
     • High-income consumers value performance more, leading to greater reductions from attribute tradeoffs.
     • Low-income consumers are less sensitive to price changes.
   • Contrary to expectations, the used vehicle market effect (a potential regressivity channel) does not offset progressivity.

3. Compliance Mechanism:

   • Manufacturers comply by:
     • Trading off horsepower (accounting for most fuel economy improvements).
     • Adopting fuel-saving technologies.
     • Adjusting prices, with limited pass-through due to high fixed costs.

4. Model Innovations:

   • Equilibrium model incorporates endogenous markups, heterogeneous consumer preferences, fixed costs of technology adoption, and performance-fuel economy tradeoffs.
   • Highly disaggregated vehicle choices and demand-side heterogeneity allow for precise welfare distributions.

Methodology

• Estimated demand and supply parameters from observed consumer and manufacturer behaviors.
• Static analysis comparing 2012 baseline standards vs. 2022 tightened standards over a 10-year period.
• Valuation of fuel costs based on consumer survey data and transaction prices.

Significance

This study provides the first comprehensive retrospective welfare and distributional analysis of U.S. vehicle fuel economy standards, highlighting the role of consumer misvaluation and attribute tradeoffs in shaping policy outcomes. The findings underscore the importance of endogenous producer behavior in environmental regulation.