亚开行-越南2023年金融市场和2024年展望_金融科技监管的方向（英）-2025_98页_2mb

Summary of Viet Nam's Financial Markets 2023 and Outlook 2024

Core Content

Viet Nam's financial markets in 2023 were shaped by a challenging global macroeconomic environment characterized by high inflation, elevated interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, Viet Nam maintained macroeconomic stability, with inflation below target and a relatively stable exchange rate. The report outlines the outlook for 2024, emphasizing continued resilience and the potential for further development in the financial sector.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Contexts Affecting Financial Markets

• Global Economic Trends:

  • Global GDP growth slowed in 2023 to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in 2022.
  • Inflation in many advanced economies remained above target, prompting central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.
  • Global trade volume growth dropped sharply in 2023 to 0.2%, from 5.6% in 2022.
  • Capital outflows from emerging markets increased due to high interest rates in advanced economies.

• Viet Nam's Economic Performance:

  • Viet Nam's GDP growth in 2023 was 5.05%, below both the 2022 rate (8.12%) and the 2023 target (6.00%–6.50%).
  • Inflation in Viet Nam was 3.25% in 2023, below the target of 4.00%.
  • The dong depreciated by only 2.6% in 2023, much less than the 4.8% average depreciation of emerging market currencies.
  • Monetary policy was eased by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), contributing to lower interest rates and supporting economic recovery.

2. Financial Market Outlook for 2024

• Interest Rates and Exchange Rate:

  • Low interest rates are expected to continue, with a gradual reduction in exchange rate pressure following the Fed's potential rate cuts in 2024.
  • The SBV is anticipated to maintain flexible and accommodative monetary policies to support economic growth.

• Liquidity and Asset Quality:

  • Financial market liquidity is expected to improve in 2024.
  • Asset quality and risks in the finance-real estate nexus remain a concern, with nonperforming loans (NPLs) and the vulnerability of the real estate sector highlighted.

• Profitability and Legal Framework:

  • Profitability of financial institutions is expected to improve, though challenges persist.
  • A more robust legal framework is needed to address risks and ensure effective oversight.

• Digital Transformation and Fintech:

  • Digital transformation is accelerating, with many banking transactions now fully digitized.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being adopted in the financial sector.
  • Fintech regulation is a key focus, with the need for a coherent legal approach and the introduction of regulatory sandboxes.

• Sustainable Development and Green Finance:

  • Green finance is gaining momentum, aligning with global trends toward sustainability.
  • The authorities are promoting ESG standards and encouraging the preparation of sustainability reports by enterprises.

Key Information

• Challenges in 2023:

  • The real economy weakened, leading to lower profit growth in banking and insurance.
  • Nonperforming loans increased, reducing the risk-absorption capacity of financial institutions.
  • The insurance sector faced challenges due to slow economic growth, tighter regulations, and scandals related to investment-linked products.

• Fintech Regulation:

  • The report outlines four global fintech regulatory approaches: wait-and-see, test-and-learn, innovation facilitators, and regulatory reform.
  • Viet Nam is advised to adopt a regulatory reform approach, including the introduction of a fintech sandbox to foster innovation and digital transformation.
  • The need for a comprehensive legal framework to regulate new products, business models, and digital technologies is emphasized.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Strengthen the stability and development of the financial market.
  • Improve gold market management.
  • Enhance fintech regulation to support digital transformation and mitigate risks such as cyber fraud.

Conclusion

The financial markets in Viet Nam showed resilience in 2023 despite global economic challenges. The outlook for 2024 suggests continued stability and growth, supported by proactive monetary policy and digital transformation. However, the sector faces significant challenges, including the finance-real estate nexus, regulatory gaps, and the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures. Fintech regulation is seen as a critical component for driving innovation and improving the financial ecosystem.

Tables and Figures Summary

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators for Major Economies, 2020–2023 and 2024 Forecast.

  • Global GDP growth declined from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023.
  • Global CPI inflation rate fell from 7.8% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2023.
  • Viet Nam's GDP growth in 2023 was 5.05%, below the target.

• Figure 1: Viet Nam's Bank Credit Growth, 2012–2023.

  • Credit growth in 2023 was the lowest since 2013, at 10.50%.

• Figure 2: Sharply Declining Housing Transactions in Some Countries.

  • Housing transactions declined significantly in several countries, reflecting the impact of high interest rates and economic uncertainty.

• Figure 3: Major Stock Market Indexes, December 2022–December 2023.

  • Viet Nam's stock market index increased by 12.2% in 2023, supported by global trends and monetary easing.

• Figure 4: Differential of Real Overnight Interbank Rates, 2019–February 2024.

  • The interest rate differential between Viet Nam and the US was the widest since 2012, contributing to capital outflows.

• Figure 5: Balance of Payments, 2019–2023.

  • The balance of payments surplus in 2023 was $5.6 billion, driven by a $25.7 billion current account surplus.

• Figure 6: Viet Nam's GDP Growth Rate and Insurance Turnover, 2019–2023.

  • Insurance turnover was affected by slower economic growth and regulatory changes.

• Table 4: Summary of AI Applications in the Finance Sector.

  • AI is increasingly being used in banking, with potential value creation across various segments.

• Table 5: Summary of Fintech Regulatory Approaches in Viet Nam.

  • Regulatory sandboxes and innovation facilitators are recommended to support fintech development.

Key Experts and Contributors

• Shantanu Chakraborty – Country Director for Viet Nam, ADB
• Can Van Luc – President, BIDV Training and Research Institute
• Vunhu Thang – Vice Chair-In-Charge, National Financial Supervisory Commission
• Nguyen Ba Hung – Principal Country Economist, ADB
• Nguyen Thi Hai Binh – Director General, NFSC
• Pham Thi Hoang Anh – Vice President, Banking Academy of Vietnam
• Jochen Schmittmann – Regional Resident Representative for Viet Nam, IMF
• Vo Tri Thanh – Director, Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy

Legal and Policy Notes

• The report is a collaborative effort by ADB, BIDV, and NFSC, with findings not reflecting the official views of the contributing institutions.
• The report is available under the CC BY 3.0 IGO license, and users are required to attribute the source.
• ADB does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data and is not liable for any errors or omissions.