20160805-新鸿基金融集团-Market_Highlights_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including index performance, stock trends, upcoming results, and valuation metrics. It also includes data on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, and the A-share premium to H-share.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI):

  • Closed at 21,832
  • Daily change: +0.4%
  • Year-to-date (YTD) change: -0.4%

• HSCEI:

  • Closed at 9,005
  • Daily change: +0.3%
  • YTD change: -6.8%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • Closed at 2,982
  • Daily change: +0.1%
  • YTD change: -15.7%

• Shenzhen Composite:

  • Closed at 1,949
  • Daily change: +0.7%
  • YTD change: -15.6%

• DJIA: Closed at 18,352, Daily change: 0.0%, YTD change: +5.3%

• S&P 500: Closed at 2,164, Daily change: 0.0%, YTD change: +5.9%

• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,166, Daily change: +0.1%, YTD change: +3.2%

• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,740, Daily change: +1.6%, YTD change: +8.0%

• DAX: Closed at 10,228, Daily change: +0.6%, YTD change: -4.8%

• CAC 40: Closed at 4,346, Daily change: +0.6%, YTD change: -6.3%

• Nikkei 225: Closed at 16,340, Daily change: +0.5%, YTD change: -14.2%

• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 9,025, Daily change: +0.3%, YTD change: +8.2%

Market Trends and Performance

• The HSI and HSCEI both showed positive daily changes.
• The Hong Kong market experienced a significant drop in turnover, with HSI at HK$16.1bn and a daily change of -39.80%.
• The market up/down ratio for the past seven trading days indicated mixed performance, with a portion of stocks rising and falling.

Stock in Focus: Lee & Man Paper (2314.HK)

• Last Close: HK$6.35
• Entry: HK$6.20
• Target: HK$6.82
• Stop-loss: HK$5.90
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 46.7%/9.3%/26.2%/32.0%
• Market Cap: HK$28.93bn
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 7.33mn shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 10.3

Key Points:

• Lee & Man Paper is a leader in the Chinese paper industry.
• The company reported a significant increase in gross profit and operating margin due to industry consolidation.
• Despite a slight revenue decline in its packaging paper segment, it has expanded into the tissue paper market.
• It is expected to enter the top five tissue paper manufacturers in China by the end of 2017.
• The tissue paper business has grown from 1% to 5% of total revenue in 2016.

Today's Top Picks

• CH Inv Fin GP (1226):

  • Last Close: HK$0.25
  • Target Price: HK$0.275
  • Stop-loss: HK$0.235
  • Reason: Price bottomed out, may place a small bet.

• CH Hcare Ent (1143):

  • Last Close: HK$0.169
  • Target Price: HK$0.189
  • Stop-loss: HK$0.159
  • Reason: Share price rose above 10-day MA with surge in turnover.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (Daily % change):

1. Durable Consumables: +3.2%
2. Technology: +2.3%
3. Sports accessories: +2.0%
4. Gaming: +1.7%
5. Heavy Machinery: +1.6%
6. Chinese Property: +1.5%
7. Toll Road: +1.4%
8. Medical: +1.3%
9. Aluminum: +1.1%
10. Brokerages: +1.0%

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:

• Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
• Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
• Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
• Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
• Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)
• Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
• Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
• Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
• Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
• Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)

Valuations and Forward P/E

External Market Conditions

• The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% and expanded its asset purchase scheme to £435bn.
• US stocks were little changed before the jobs report, with the Dow slightly down and the NASDAQ slightly up.
• ADRs rose, putting HSI up 97 points.
• US gasoline inventories fell unexpectedly, driving up oil prices.
• New York crude oil futures closed at $41.93/bbl, up $1.1.
• New York gold futures closed at $1,367.40/oz, up $2.70.

Upcoming Results

• China Resources Cement (1313.HK): Interim results for 2016 ended June 30, with a profit warning.
• Other companies with interim results or dividends due on 5/8/2016 and 8/8/2016 include:
  • China XLX Fert
  • Essex Bio-tech
  • OOIL
  • ShanShui Cement
  • Asia Cement CH
  • China Lilang
  • CNE Tech Corp
  • Dachan Food
  • Logan PPT
  • Nagacorp
  • S HarbourHold
  • Sinosoft Tech
  • SJM Holdings
  • Champion REIT
  • China Longyuan
  • China SCE PPT
  • Chinese Est H

Key Highlights

• The Hong Kong market experienced a rally, with the HSI up 93 points and HSCEI up 26 points.
• HSBC and Standard Chartered reported better-than-expected results, leading to price increases.
• Geely Automobile revised its annual sales target upward by 10%, leading to a 1.5% share price increase.
• China Resources Cement is expected to report a significant decline in profit, and its stock price is likely to consolidate.
• Interest rates and exchange rates were noted, with the Bank of England's actions expected to lift stock markets in the near term.
• Commodities and precious metals showed mixed performance, with oil prices rising due to lower inventory levels.
• A-share premium to H-share was noted for several companies, with some showing a significant gap.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market showed mixed performance with the HSI and HSCEI rising slightly, while the overall market turnover dropped significantly. The external market conditions, including the Bank of England's rate cut and the rise in oil prices, are expected to have a positive impact on Hong Kong stocks. Lee & Man Paper is highlighted as a potential growth stock due to its expansion into the tissue paper market. The document also lists top picks and sector performances, providing a detailed view for investors.