2022-10-28-群邑-2022年法国年中广告报告_37页_1mb

Document Summary: This Year Next Year - 2022 Mid-Year Advertising Forecast

Core Content Overview

This report provides a mid-year forecast for the global advertising industry in 2022, highlighting the interplay between economic conditions, regulatory changes, and media trends. It also includes a forecast for France and discusses the broader implications of these factors on advertising growth and strategies.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Global Advertising Growth Forecast

• Underlying growth: Expected to be 8.4% in 2022 (excluding U.S. political advertising), slightly lower than the 32% growth seen in 2021.
• Nominal growth: Likely to reach 10% due to a combination of real growth and inflation.
• Real vs. Nominal Growth:
  • Real growth is expected to be 3.5% for 2022, down from 4.5% in early 2021.
  • Inflation is projected to be 6.9% in 2022, up from 3.7% in 2021, reflecting a broader economic shift.

2. Economic Backdrop

• Inflationary pressures: Rising consumer prices across major markets, with the U.S. at 8.3%, Euro Zone at 7.4%, U.K. at 9.0%, and Japan at 2.5%.
• Consumer behavior: Despite high inflation, consumers are showing inelastic demand, continuing to spend on goods and services even as prices rise.
• Wage growth:
  • U.S. average wages rose 4.9%.
  • Lower-income earners saw even faster growth (9.3%).
  • Germany and the U.K. also experienced strong wage growth (4.0% and 7.0%, respectively).
• Savings rates: Increased significantly during the pandemic, with savings in the U.S. reaching $13 trillion in 2021, providing a buffer for continued spending.

3. Media Trends

• Digital advertising:
  • Expected to grow 12% in 2022, a slowdown from 2021.
  • Still dominates, with 67% of total budgets allocated to digital, including small businesses that rely on it exclusively.
• Television:
  • Expected to grow 4% in 2022, rebounding from pandemic lows.
  • Supported by ad-supported streaming services (AVOD), which help achieve reach and frequency goals.
  • Global TV is becoming more localized, with U.S. platforms investing in local-language content.

4. Secular Drivers of Advertising Growth

• New business creation:
  • A key growth engine, with small businesses forming at higher rates than in 2019.
  • New businesses tend to have higher advertising-to-revenue ratios than established ones.
• Venture capital:
  • Funds startups with high advertising expense-to-revenue ratios.
  • Venture investors are becoming more disciplined due to higher capital costs and economic uncertainty.
• Chinese advertisers:
  • A drag on growth in 2022 due to reduced export activity and lockdowns.
  • Exports grew by 3.9% in April 2022, down from >20% in 2021.
  • However, growth may pick up as conditions return to "normal."

5. Regulatory Impact

• EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) are expected to take effect by 2023, imposing stricter rules on digital platforms.
• U.S. state-level policies:
  • Some states (e.g., Texas, Florida) are pushing laws to limit platform censorship and content moderation, potentially reclassifying platforms as common carriers.
  • These laws may reduce platform autonomy, leading to more scrutiny and legal challenges.
• Apple's privacy changes:
  • Reduced data availability for advertisers, which could affect targeting and measurement.
  • While some platforms experienced slower growth, the impact is likely due to other factors (budget saturation, e-commerce slowdown, etc.).
  • Digital advertising still grew faster than in any year since 2007.

Key Industry Insights

• Ad-supported streaming services (AVOD) are helping television maintain relevance and growth.
• Consumer spending is a major driver of advertising growth, supported by wage gains and savings.
• Globalization trends are being challenged by de-globalization and increased regulation, especially in China and the EU.
• Regulation and competition are reshaping the digital media landscape, with platforms facing more constraints and scrutiny.

Conclusion

• Despite fears of recession and inflation, the global advertising market is expected to grow nominally by 10% in 2022.
• Real growth is still positive, and consumer spending remains strong.
• Regulatory changes are likely to have long-term impacts on digital platforms, but not necessarily on overall advertising budgets.
• Secular trends such as new business formation and venture capital continue to drive growth, albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2021.

Appendix Highlights

• Historical revisions show a long-term upward trend in digital advertising growth.
• Summary data tables provide detailed statistics on inflation, GDP, and advertising growth across key markets.
• Key terms:
  • Inelastic demand: Consumers continue to purchase despite price increases.
  • Input costs: Rising production costs are passed on to consumers.
  • Nominal growth: Growth not adjusted for inflation, reflecting actual revenue increases.