战略与国际研究中心-The-National-Security-Economics-of-the-Middle-East_-Comparative-Spending,-Burden-Sharing,-and-Modernization_212页_40mb

Summary of The National Security Economics of the Middle East: Comparative Spending, Burden Sharing, and Modernization

Core Content

This report, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan and published in March 2017, examines the evolving economics of national security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It highlights the increasing costs and complexity of security spending, the challenges of accurate data collection, and the broader implications for regional stability and development.

Main Points

• Shift in Security Priorities: Since 2001, national security in the MENA region has expanded to include counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and internal security, alongside traditional military spending.
• Rising Threats: Non-state actors, asymmetric warfare, and sectarian/ethnic tensions have significantly altered the nature of security challenges.
• Nuclear and Missile Threats: These are not new to the region but have become more pressing, influencing the cost and structure of military forces.
• Internal Stability as a Priority: The political upheavals of 2011 highlighted the importance of internal stability, with governance, employment, and social development becoming key factors in national security economics.
• Military Spending Trends: The report emphasizes that military spending in the MENA region is often unsustainable, with many states, including wealthy oil exporters, exceeding their economic capacity.
• Gulf Arms Race: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have engaged in a costly arms race, with military spending as a percentage of GDP reaching levels far above NATO's recommended 2%.
• Data Challenges: There is a lack of reliable and comprehensive data on national security spending, especially on internal security and counterterrorism. Metrics like GDP percentage spent on defense are insufficient to assess the true burden or effectiveness of security efforts.
• Burden Sharing Misconceptions: The report warns against using simplistic metrics to evaluate burden sharing, as they fail to account for differences in economic capacity, regional roles, and the need for synergistic international cooperation.

Key Information

Military Security

• Military spending is no longer the sole focus of national security economics.
• Effectiveness and efficiency of spending are more important than the absolute amount.
• The Gulf region has seen a significant increase in military expenditures, with Saudi Arabia spending over $56 billion in 2016, placing it among the world's top defense spenders.

Internal Security

• Counterterrorism and internal security have become critical components of national security spending.
• There is a lack of reliable data on internal security expenditures, which are often combined with military spending or not reported separately.
• Internal security challenges include violent Islamist extremism, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and tribal conflicts.

Internal Stability

• Governance, employment, and social development are essential for maintaining internal stability.
• The "youth bulge" and economic inequality have contributed to instability and the rise of extremist movements.
• Many governments have failed to address these underlying issues, leading to widespread unrest and conflict.

Regional Trends

• The MENA region accounts for a significant portion of global military spending, estimated at 10% in 2016 by the IISS.
• SIPRI data suggest that the region's military spending in 2014 was $199 billion, or 11.3% of the world total, when including Turkey.
• Military spending as a percentage of GDP in the region has exceeded NATO's 2% target, with some states spending several times that amount.

Arms Imports and Modernization

• The report analyzes arms imports and modernization efforts across the region, noting the significant role of the U.S., France, and Britain in supplying arms to MENA states.
• The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have imported large quantities of military equipment, while Iran has been slower to modernize despite its own significant military spending.
• The lack of transparency in arms reporting complicates the assessment of regional military capabilities and spending trends.

Burden Sharing and Metrics

• Metrics like military spending as a percentage of GDP are misleading and do not reflect the true effectiveness or sustainability of security spending.
• The report calls for a more nuanced approach to assessing burden sharing, considering the economic and strategic realities of different states.
• The role of small but wealthy states like Qatar, as well as the impact of external powers, is also highlighted.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of national security economics in the MENA region. It argues that security spending must be viewed not only in terms of military expenditure but also in the context of internal stability, governance, and social development. The data challenges and the complexity of regional dynamics make it difficult to draw clear conclusions, but they highlight the unsustainable nature of current spending trends and the importance of strategic and economic balance in security policy.