世界银行-世界银行东亚和太平洋经济更新，2023年4月：复苏增长（英）-120页_2mb

East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (April 2023) Summary

Executive Summary

The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is experiencing a revival of growth amid post-pandemic recovery challenges. Key drivers include robust private consumption, resurgent services exports, and strong manufacturing output. However, external factors like global slowdown, trade tensions, and climate change pose significant risks. The region has achieved notable poverty reduction and income convergence but faces long-term challenges related to aging, productivity decline, and climate vulnerability. Policy recommendations focus on inclusive fiscal policies, structural reforms, climate adaptation, and international cooperation to sustain growth and resilience.

Key Findings

Growth and Economic Performance

• Recent Trends: EAP economies have largely recovered from COVID-19 shocks, with average growth stabilizing. China's reopening has invigorated regional exports, offsetting some global headwinds. However, Pacific Island Countries lag in output recovery due to persistent border restrictions and natural disasters.
• Inflation and Fiscal Policy: Inflation remains elevated in many EAP countries, exceeding central bank targets. Fiscal policies are tightening in response, balanced between stimulus and debt concerns. Currency depreciation has eased pressure on import prices but raises financing challenges.
• Structural Change: The EAP region has enjoyed higher growth volatility compared to advanced economies since the Asian Financial Crisis. Structural reforms, particularly in trade and finance, contributed significantly to this growth, though the pace has slowed in recent years.

External Environment in 2023

• Global Growth Projections: Global growth is projected to slow in 2023, though recent data shows improved prospects. EAP's trade integration with China deepens, making it vulnerable to US-China decoupling, which has shifted export patterns and opened new opportunities for countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.
• Climate and Trade Risks: Non-tariff barriers and divergent regulatory standards between the U.S. and China fragment global supply chains, increasing adaptation costs. Agriculture, fisheries, and tourism are highly exposed to climate risks, with potential GDP losses by 2100.

Longer-Term Dynamics and Challenges

• Aging Population: EAP countries face rapid aging at lower income levels, straining pension systems and healthcare. Civil service pensions are underfunded, requiring reforms to restore fiscal balance and equity.
• Productivity Decline: Productivity growth has slowed, primarily driven by capital deepening rather than innovation. Premature deindustrialization peaked earlier than expected, though Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar are accelerating into higher-productivity sectors.
• Potential Growth: Aging, deglobalization, and climate change could reduce potential growth by up to 0.5 percentage points annually. Female labor force participation and structural reforms, such as enhancing domestic resource allocation, could offset these impacts.

Concluding Remarks

The EAP region stands at a critical juncture where proactive policies can harness its resilience and address vulnerabilities. Prioritizing structural reforms, climate adaptation, and inclusive growth strategies will be essential for navigating the decade ahead. International cooperation, especially in finance and technology, can mitigate external risks and foster shared prosperity.