2017年-世界发展银行全球_Western_Balkans_Labor_Market__Trends_2017_68页_3mb

Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2017 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of labor market trends in the Western Balkans from 2010 to 2016, comparing them with selected EU countries. It highlights the structural challenges and uneven outcomes in employment, unemployment, and inactivity across the region.

Main Points

Employment Growth

• From 2010 to 2016, the Western Balkans created approximately 300,000 jobs, increasing employment from 5.5 million to 5.8 million.
• Despite this growth, the rate of job creation is insufficient to address the region's labor market challenges.
• The employment rate for the 15-64 age group increased in 2016 compared to 2010 in all Western Balkan countries, except Kosovo.

Unemployment Trends

• Unemployment decreased by about 200,000 people, from 23% to 21% of the labor force.
• Inactivity remains high, particularly among women, the low-educated, and youth.
• Youth unemployment is critically high, with some countries reporting over 50% unemployment rates among young people.
• Long-term unemployment is a major issue, especially among youth, indicating a risk of skill degradation.

Informal Employment

• Informal employment remains a significant challenge in the region.
• In some countries, such as Serbia, a large proportion of new jobs created are in the informal sector.
• The relationship between economic growth and informal employment is pro-cyclical, meaning that growth leads to more informal jobs.

Structural Challenges

• The transition to modern market economies is not yet complete.
• Structural issues such as low productivity, skills mismatches, and weak entrepreneurship remain unresolved.
• Economic growth alone is not sufficient to create the right number and type of jobs in the region.

Key Findings

Winners of Employment Recovery

• Adults aged 55 and older and highly educated individuals have benefited the most from recent employment recovery.
• The employment rate for the 55-64 age group has increased significantly, indicating structural improvements.
• Higher education is a pathway to stable employment, including for youth.

Losers of Employment Recovery

• Low-educated individuals, especially youth, are the primary losers of the recent employment recovery.
• Youth unemployment rates have fallen faster than the overall unemployment rate in some countries, but the share of long-term unemployed among youth remains high.
• The gender gap in employment and activity rates is significant, with women having lower participation and higher inactivity rates.

Inactivity Rates

• Inactivity is a major issue in the Western Balkans, with rates reaching 40% in 2015, compared to 25-35% in EU peer countries.
• Inactivity is highest among youth, women, and the low-educated.
• Inactivity rates among low-educated individuals are over 60% in some countries, with Kosovo at over 80%.
• The gender gap in inactivity is most pronounced in Kosovo, where it reaches 38.6 percentage points.

Policy Implications

• Reforming labor regulations and taxation could positively impact youth employment.
• Addressing skills mismatches and improving access to productive inputs is essential for long-term labor market improvement.
• Enhancing social norms and attitudes towards women's participation in the labor market is needed.
• Improving care facilities and reducing reliance on remittances could help reduce inactivity, especially among women.

Supporting Information

• The report is based on a regionally comparable database of labor market indicators, available on the SEE Jobs Gateway website.
• The database includes data from national statistical offices and Eurostat.
• The report compares labor market developments with EU peer countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary) to provide insights into potential future trajectories.

Conclusion

• The Western Balkans face significant structural labor market challenges.
• Economic growth has not led to substantial employment growth or unemployment reduction.
• Youth and low-educated individuals are disproportionately affected by high unemployment and inactivity.
• The transition to modern market economies is ongoing, and structural reforms are necessary for sustainable labor market development.