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Summary of the Document: Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Core Content

The document discusses the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on vulnerable economies, particularly Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). These economies are heavily reliant on imported oil, and the rising energy prices due to such disruptions pose significant challenges to their economic stability and development.

Main Points

• Global Impact of Hormuz Disruptions: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing significant ripple effects in the global energy system.
• Dependence on Oil Imports: Out of 75 vulnerable economies, 65 are net importers of oil. This includes 86% of LDCs and 87% of SIDS.
• Population Affected: Nearly 983 million people live in these vulnerable economies, with over 30% living below the extreme poverty line of $3 per day.
• Refined Oil Products Dependency: Many vulnerable economies lack sufficient refining infrastructure and thus mainly import refined oil products.
• Economic Consequences: A 50% increase in oil prices could raise the annual cost of importing oil by $20 billion, significantly impacting the budgets of these economies.
• GDP Impact: For many vulnerable economies, the increase in oil import costs could reach above 0.5% of GDP, further straining their economies.
• Need for Alternative Supplies: Some economies rely heavily on oil imports from the Hormuz region, which includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Disruptions may force them to seek alternative supply routes.
• Broader Economic Effects: The shock could lead to increased freight and fuel costs, broader inflation, and fiscal pressure, forcing difficult trade-offs between supporting households and maintaining public services and long-term investments.
• Potential for Economic Slowdown: Higher oil import bills may widen current account deficits, weaken exchange rates, and trigger higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and slower economic growth, especially in economies with limited fiscal space.
• Quote from UN Secretary-General: "When the Strait of Hormuz is strangled, the world's poorest and most vulnerable cannot breathe," highlighting the severe consequences of such disruptions on the most vulnerable populations.

Key Information

• Oil Price Increases: The document references sharp price increases in both crude oil and refined oil products (gasoline) from January 2024 to May 2026.
• Data Sources: The analysis is based on data from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), UN Comtrade, UNCTADStat, Asian Development Bank, and World Bank.
• Impact on Import Bills: A 50% increase in oil prices would raise the annual cost of importing oil by $20 billion.
• Poverty and Vulnerability: Over 30% of people in these vulnerable economies live below the extreme poverty line, making them particularly susceptible to the effects of oil price shocks.
• Fiscal and Economic Trade-offs: Vulnerable economies face difficult choices between subsidizing fuel costs for households and investing in public services and sustainable development.
• Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Effects: Economic slowdown and increased import costs can lead to weakened exchange rates and higher interest rates, exacerbating financial instability.

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, and any disruptions have far-reaching consequences. Vulnerable economies, especially LDCs and SIDS, are disproportionately affected due to their reliance on oil imports and limited fiscal and economic resilience. The rising costs of oil and the need for alternative supplies pose serious challenges to their development and stability, requiring urgent attention and support from the international community.