战略与国际研究中心-Policy-Papers-on-the-Americas_-Storm-Watch_-Democracy-in-the-Western-Hemisphere-into-the-Next-Century_38页_174kb

Storm Watch: Democracy in the Western Hemisphere into the Next Century

Summary

Core Content

This report, Storm Watch: Democracy in the Western Hemisphere into the Next Century, by Douglas W. Payne, assesses the state of democracy in the Americas in the early 1990s and evaluates its prospects for the coming century. It highlights both the progress made and the persistent challenges that threaten the stability and sustainability of democratic institutions across the region.

Main Views

• Democracy is not merely about elections: While regular, multi-party elections are now common throughout the hemisphere (except Cuba), the success of democracy depends on more than just voting. The rule of law, civil liberties, and the quality of governance are equally important.

• Progress and Persistent Challenges Coexist: The region has made significant strides toward democratic governance, with many countries experiencing peaceful political transitions and stronger civil societies. However, challenges such as corruption, weak institutions, and social unrest remain pervasive.

• Democracy is under threat from internal and external forces: Issues like organized crime, drug trafficking, economic inequality, and disillusionment with elected governments are undermining democratic stability. The report warns that these challenges could lead to a return to authoritarianism or instability.

• U.S. Policy has a critical role: The U.S. has historically alternated between neglect and intervention in the region. The report urges a more consistent and supportive approach to promote and sustain democracy.

Key Information

Levels of Democratization

• Costa Rica is a standout example of a country where democracy is grounded in the rule of law. It has a strong separation of powers, independent judiciary, and a culture of civil liberties and accountability.

• Uruguay and Chile have made progress in democratic governance but still face challenges. Chile’s 1980 constitution, imposed by Pinochet, limits civilian control over the military and includes non-elected seats in the Senate, creating structural imbalances. Uruguay suffers from political gridlock and a judiciary that is backlogged and strained.

• Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela have experienced democratic transitions but remain vulnerable due to corruption, weak institutions, and political instability. Bolivia ranks as the second-most corrupt country in the world (after Nigeria) according to Transparency International’s 1997 index. Ecuador’s president, Abdala Bucaram, was accused of massive corruption and was deposed in 1997. Venezuela's political class is discredited, and the country faces high levels of poverty and crime.

• Peru, Brazil, and Argentina show varying degrees of democratic resilience. Peru's Fujimori regime, while effective in curbing inflation, has undermined the rule of law and democratic institutions. Brazil, despite some improvements, still struggles with corruption, political gridlock, and public insecurity. Argentina, under Menem, has seen a weakening of democratic norms and institutions.

• Paraguay and Colombia continue to face significant challenges. Paraguay remains politically unstable with factional infighting within the ruling party and a weak judiciary. Colombia is a "narco-state" with deep-rooted corruption, violence, and insecurity, exacerbated by drug trafficking and the resurgence of death squads.

• Central America and Panama have seen the end of insurgencies, but political stability is still threatened by weak legal systems, impunity, and rising criminal violence. The report notes that the region remains one of the most violent in the world.

Challenges to Democracy

• Corruption and impunity are widespread and deeply entrenched, undermining public trust in institutions.

• Weak rule of law and politicized judiciary systems prevent effective governance and justice delivery.

• Economic instability and inequality contribute to social unrest and disillusionment with democratic systems.

• Organized crime and drug trafficking have infiltrated political and judicial systems, creating a climate of fear and instability.

• Disillusionment with elected rule is growing, with many citizens turning to political outsiders or populists who promise change but often deliver instability.

Positive Trends

• Civil society and media are becoming more active and influential, pushing for transparency and accountability.

• Anti-corruption efforts are gaining momentum, especially in countries like Chile and Uruguay.

• Economic reforms have led to improved conditions in some countries, though they have also introduced new challenges.

• Democratic traditions in the English-speaking Caribbean are more stable and enduring than in other parts of the hemisphere.

Implications for U.S. Policy

• The U.S. must adopt a more consistent and proactive policy to support democratic institutions and address the root causes of instability.

• The report warns against the pattern of neglect followed by panic, urging a long-term, strategic approach to democracy promotion.

• U.S. engagement should focus on strengthening the rule of law, reducing corruption, and supporting civil society and media.

Conclusion

While the Western Hemisphere has made significant progress in establishing democratic systems, the region is not yet secure. The challenges facing democracy—corruption, weak institutions, economic instability, and organized crime—require sustained attention and effort. The report emphasizes that the survival of democracy in the region depends on addressing these underlying issues and fostering a culture of accountability and the rule of law.