亚开行-使用供应和使用框架估算增值税：亚洲开发银行国民账户统计增值税模型（英）-2024.2-66页_1mb

Summary of Estimating Value-Added Tax Using a Supply and Use Framework: The ADB National Accounts Statistics VAT Model

Introduction

The report introduces the Asian Development Bank (ADB) National Accounts Statistics Value-Added Tax (NAS-VAT) model, designed to estimate nonrecoverable VAT on products using supply and use tables (SUTs). VAT is challenging to compile due to its input-credit mechanism and broad coverage, making it essential for economic and fiscal analyses.

Value-Added Tax and Conceptual Background

VAT is an indirect consumption tax with an input-credit mechanism, allowing producers to deduct input VAT on purchases against output VAT on sales. Challenges include cascading taxes and inconsistent data; the NAS-VAT model addresses these by integrating tax legislation and SUTs for theoretically consistent estimates.

ADB NAS-VAT Model

• Key Elements: Uses policy variables (tax rates, exemptions, input tax credits), taxable proportions, and nonrecoverable rates.
  • Policy matrices define VAT regimes (nontaxable, exempt, zero-rated, creditable inputs).
  • Nonrecoverable rate isolates VAT embedded in purchaser's prices.
• Methodology: Aggregates policy variables, computes VAT embedded in use table data, and iteratively balances SUTs to reconcile supply and use discrepancies.
• Applications: Demonstrates in Armenia (2017-2018), Kazakhstan (2017-2019), and Uzbekistan (2016-2019).
• Results: Shows VAT gap and theoretical VAT ratio (TVR), indicating administrative efficiency and potential reforms.
• Advantages: Simpler and more product-disaggregated than existing models (e.g., HMRC VTTL and IMF RA-GAP); enhances national accounts consistency and policy design.

Value-Added Tax on Products in SUTs

The model computes theoretical VAT at the product level, using use tables to estimate nonrecoverable VAT absorbed by sectors and final consumers. Iterative balancing refines estimates, minimizing inconsistencies.

Applications in Case Studies

• Armenia: Estimated VAT gaps and TVR show improving administration.
• Kazakhstan: Broader VAT base and reforms increased TVR despite informal economy.
• Uzbekistan: VAT reduction and revenue thresholds impacted gaps, with iterative adjustments needed.

Conclusion

The NAS-VAT model provides a consistent and efficient tool for national accounts compilation, VAT gap assessment, and policy simulation. It is user-friendly and integrates well with SUTs, aiding fiscal policymakers in evidence-based decision-making.