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May Foot Traffic Summary: Consumer Continues to Power Along

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of foot traffic data from May 11, 2025, using proprietary data from Placer, which aggregates geolocation data from approximately 25 million mobile devices across 500,000 locations. The data is used as a proxy for consumer spending and is analyzed through the "Universal SSS" methodology, which considers a panel of locations with consistent foot traffic data over time.

Key Findings

Overall Foot Traffic Growth

• May MTD: Steady with April, which had accelerated ~2.5ppts from March.
• 2QTD: Tracking to a ~2ppt acceleration from 1Q (excluding Leap Year) and ~3ppt when including Leap Year.

Sector-Wise Analysis

• Eating & Drinking Places: Steady MTD in May on an equal compare, after April accelerated ~1.5ppts from March. 2QTD tracking to a ~1.5ppt acceleration from 1Q (ex-LY).
• Travel & Leisure: Slowed ~0.5ppt MTD in May, but 2QTD tracking to an ~8ppt acceleration from 1Q (ex-LY). This category includes Attractions, Budget Accommodations & Inns, Hotels & Casinos, and Theaters & Music Venues.
• Services: Growth slowed ~1ppt in May MTD and 2QTD tracking in-line with 1Q (ex-LY). Includes Beauty & Spa, Fitness, Car Wash / Services, and Shipping & Storage.
• Sub-Category Level Growth:
  • Hobbies, Gifts & Crafts: Strong growth with ~23ppt in April and ~11ppt in May.
  • Theaters & Music Venues: Notable growth with ~43ppt in April and ~55ppt in May.
  • Department Stores: Steady growth with ~10ppt in April and ~3ppt in May.
  • Groceries: Steady growth with ~1ppt in April and ~4ppt in May.
  • Discount & Dollar Stores: Strong growth with ~21ppt in April and ~6ppt in May.
  • Car Wash Services: Notable volatility, with ~-18ppt in April and ~3ppt in May.
  • Beauty & Spa: Growth slowed ~1ppt in May MTD, but 2QTD tracking to ~0ppt compared to 1Q.
  • Fitness: Steady growth with ~9ppt in April and ~2ppt in May.
  • Home Improvement: Growth fluctuated, with ~7ppt in April and ~2ppt in May.
  • Fast Food & QSR: Growth slowed with ~-1ppt in May MTD, but 2QTD tracking to ~0ppt compared to 1Q.
  • Restaurants: Growth slowed with ~0ppt in May MTD, but 2QTD tracking to ~4ppt compared to 1Q.

Investment Recommendation

• Global Payments, Inc. (GPN): Currently rated HOLD with a price target of $75, based on ~5x the pro-forma 2026E adjusted EPS estimate.
• Risks: Include macroeconomic factors, consumer spending trends, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures.

Analysts and Contact Information

• Trevor Williams - Equity Analyst
  • Email: twilliams3@jefferies.com
  • Phone: (415) 229-1546
• Alexander Glockner - Equity Associate
  • Email: aglockner@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (415) 229-8729
• Ryan Levine - Equity Associate
  • Email: rlevine4@jefferies.com
  • Phone: +1 (415) 229-1512

Ratings and Price Targets

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return of plus or minus 15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR: Temporary suspension of investment rating and price target.
• CS: Coverage suspended.
• NC: Not covered.
• Restricted: Prohibitions on certain communications due to company policy or regulations.
• Monitor: No financial projections or investment opinions provided.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses various methodologies to assign ratings and set price targets, including:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity
• Growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return over the next 12 months
• Analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue stream, DCF, EBITDA, EPS, CF, FCF, EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF, premium/discount average group EV/EBITDA, premium/discount average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and ROE.

Other Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the research.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered as one of many factors in investment decisions.
• No securities commission or regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or passed judgment on this report.
• In Singapore, the report is intended for accredited, expert, or institutional investors.
• In Dubai, the report is intended for Professional Clients only.
• In Japan, the report is for institutional investors only.
• In Hong Kong, the report is for professional investors only.
• In the Republic of China (Taiwan), the report should not be distributed.
• In India, the report is provided by Jefferies India Private Limited.
• In Australia, the report is directed at wholesale clients.

Summary of Rating Distribution

Conclusion

The report highlights the resilience of consumer spending, particularly in the Eating & Drinking Places and Hobbies, Gifts & Crafts sectors, while noting some slowdowns in Travel & Leisure and Services. The valuation and investment recommendation for Global Payments, Inc. is based on a 5x 2026E adjusted EPS estimate, with the HOLD rating indicating moderate expected returns. Investors are advised to consider the report as a single factor in their decision-making process and to consult with financial advisors.