2025-06-09-Jefferies-施特劳斯集团（STRS）_近期逆风依然存在_12页_332kb
报告摘要
- Rating: HOLD
- Price Target: NIS 83 (up 5% from NIS 75).
- Key Drivers: Productivity gains and cost initiatives amid persistent cost inflation, particularly in coffee and cocoa.
- Growth Forecast: FY25 organic revenue growth expected at 16.5%, led by International Coffee. H2 growth may slow due to base effects from last year's price hikes.
- Margin Expansion: Operating margin to improve to 7.9% in FY25 (10% by FY26), supported by structural levers like supply chain savings and in-house manufacturing efficiencies.
- Risks: Uncertain demand elasticity, cost pressures, and potential sensitivity of consumer demand to pricing, especially in coffee and confectionery.
- Valuation: Trading at 15x P/E; price target based on 8.3x EV/EBITDA, implying a 25% discount to peers like Danone.
- Dividends: NTM dividend of NIS 3.2, with potential TSR of 8-9%.
- Catalysts: Upcoming Q2 results and execution on sustainability initiatives.
- Sustainability: Focus on reusable/recyclable packaging, renewable energy, and water conservation by 2030.
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