欧洲央行-零下限下的央行独立性和风险承担（英）-2025.7_53页_2mb
报告摘要
- Central banks' balance sheets have expanded significantly since the Global Financial Crisis, raising concerns about financial risks associated with balance sheet policies.
- Value at Risk (VaR) increased from under 1% to around 3% of GDP, reflecting both larger asset holdings and riskier asset compositions.
- Higher policy rates correlate with increased risk-taking, likely due to constrained conventional monetary tools encouraging balance sheet policies like quantitative easing.
- More independent central banks show a greater tendency to take risks, suggesting they focus on policy effectiveness without fiscal pressure.
- Results challenge the "fiscal dominance" view, indicating central banks are complementary to fiscal policies during contraction, taking risks that offset fiscal actions.
- Growth in loss-absorbing capacities provided evidence that higher risks were managed through buffers and prudent risk management measures.
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