2012年-世界发展银行全球_South_East_Europe_Regular_Economic_Report_No_3___From_Double-Dip_Recession_to_Accelerated_Reforms_59页_3mb

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 3: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

Core Content

This report analyzes the economic situation of the six South East European countries (SEE6)—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia—following a double-dip recession in 2012. It highlights the challenges posed by deteriorating external conditions, the impact of global economic risks, and the need for accelerated fiscal and structural reforms to ensure sustainable recovery.

Main Points

A. Eurozone in Recession, New Global Risks

• Global economic activity is slowly recovering, but the growth is fragile.
• The Eurozone recession and global uncertainties are key risks to recovery.
• China's slowdown and high food prices pose additional threats.
• The European Central Bank's measures have eased tensions, but risks remain.
• Emerging market bond spreads have declined, and capital flows have rebounded.
• Industrial production in the US and Japan is declining, and the Eurozone faces a contraction in GDP.

B. Growth in SEE6 — A Double-Dip Recession

• SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012, with real GDP growth projected at -0.6%.
• Serbia, the largest economy in the region, led the decline, with real GDP falling by 2%.
• Industrial output has been declining for three quarters, with the most severe drop in Q1 2012 due to cold weather, drought, and reduced export demand.
• Albania and Montenegro saw significant drops in industrial output, while Serbia's output contraction was more moderate.
• Agricultural output also declined sharply due to extreme weather conditions, especially in Serbia and BIH.
• Unemployment rates in the region are at record highs, with Serbia and BIH experiencing the most significant increases.

C. Labor Markets — A Continuing Crisis

• Unemployment in SEE6 has risen significantly since the global crisis, with Serbia and BIH seeing increases of over 11 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
• The labor market crisis has been more prolonged in Serbia and BIH compared to the Baltic States.
• High unemployment is a major economic and social challenge, with youth and long-term unemployment being particularly severe.
• Inactivity is also rising, with many individuals dropping out of the labor market during the crisis.

D. Trade and External Debt — Worsening

• Trade and external debt are deteriorating, with a lack of growth in exports and rising external debt levels.
• Exports are a key component of economic activity, but growth has been weak and insufficient to drive recovery.
• External debt in SEE6 countries is high, and the region is vulnerable to global financial shocks.

E. Fiscal Policy — Rising Deficits, Debt, and Arrears

• Fiscal deficits and public debt have increased significantly.
• Public sector arrears are a growing concern, affecting both fiscal management and the private sector.
• SEE6 countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space, limiting the ability to support public investment.

F. Financial Sector — Continued Vulnerability

• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) are rising again, threatening financial stability.
• Credit growth is weak, and the financial sector remains vulnerable.
• Capital adequacy ratios and return on assets are concerning, indicating a need for reform.

G. Structural Issues: The SEE6 Environment for Doing Business

• The business environment in SEE6 countries is weak, with many areas needing improvement.
• The Ease of Doing Business index is low, and there are significant weaknesses in the business environment.
• Structural reforms are necessary to improve the investment climate and labor markets.

H. Structural Issues: The Second Wave of Privatization?

• Privatization is a key structural reform, but progress has been slow.
• Announced privatizations in the Western Balkans are expected to contribute to economic growth.
• The report emphasizes the need for continued privatization efforts to support economic recovery.

I. Structural Issues: Energy Infrastructure Deficit

• Energy infrastructure is a major bottleneck for economic growth.
• Current and forecasted power imports indicate a significant gap in energy production.
• The energy sector requires substantial investment and reform to support long-term growth.

J. SEE6 Outlook for 2012–13

• The outlook for 2013 is uncertain, with growth expected to average 1.6%.
• Risks include the U.S. "fiscal cliff," Eurozone uncertainty, and high commodity prices.
• The region is highly vulnerable to new food price shocks, which could exacerbate poverty and social tensions.

K. Accelerating Reforms, Mobilizing Financing

• Accelerated fiscal and structural reforms are necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth.
• External support from the EU and international financial institutions (IFIs) could be crucial.
• The Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources are expected to play a key role in financing growth and job creation.
• Structural reforms in the investment climate, labor markets, and public sector governance are essential for long-term recovery.

Key Information

• Growth in SEE6: -0.6% in 2012, with a projected average of 1.6% in 2013.
• Unemployment: Averaging about 25% in the region, with Serbia and BIH at 28%.
• Industrial Output: Declined for three quarters, with the most severe drop in Q1 2012.
• Agricultural Output: Suffered from extreme weather, with significant declines in 2012.
• Fiscal Challenges: Rising deficits, debt, and arrears are major concerns.
• Financial Sector: NPLs are increasing, and credit recovery is slow.
• Structural Reforms: Needed in public sector governance, investment climate, and labor markets.
• External Support: The EU and IFIs could provide critical support for growth and reform.
• Food Price Shocks: A major risk to the region, with potential impacts on poverty and social stability.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for SEE6 countries to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms to break the cycle of recession and austerity. With external support and a focus on infrastructure, investment, and labor market improvements, the region can move towards more sustainable growth. However, without such reforms, the risks of prolonged economic stagnation and social unrest remain high.