2022-08-30-Kroll-2022年夏季服饰行业报告_EN_29页_1012kb

KROLL Apparel Industry Insights Summary - Summer 2022

Core Content

Kroll's Consumer & Apparel M&A Practice is a leading middle-market advisory firm, with a strong track record of executing over 100 M&A and capital-raising transactions in the past decade. The firm specializes in the consumer, apparel, retail, food, and restaurant sectors and has a global presence with nearly 5,000 professionals across 30 countries and territories.

Key Themes and Insights

Macroeconomic Headwinds

• The U.S. and global markets faced significant challenges in 2022 due to:
  • The emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19
  • High inflation rates
  • Disrupted supply chains
  • Geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine war
• The S&P 500 experienced a year-over-year loss of over 6% and a year-to-date loss of over 17%.
• Consumer stocks are nearing or below pandemic lows from March 2020.

M&A Activity

• Despite macroeconomic headwinds, M&A activity in the apparel and retail sectors has remained strong.
• Notable acquisitions in 2022:
  • Cosabella acquired by CALIDA GROUP
  • Frankies Bikinis acquired by Victoria's Secret
  • ba&sh acquired by HLD

Valuation Trends

• Valuations in the broader apparel and retail sectors have declined slightly but remain strong.
• Average LTM EV/EBITDA multiples:
  • Apparel: 9.6x
  • Retail: 5.9x
• Active apparel sub-sector had the highest valuations at 13.6x.
• Off-price retail segment led at 11.3x.

Consumer Behavior

• A recurring theme is the premium placed on strong, innovative brands with compelling customer value propositions.
• Consumer concerns over data privacy are rising, especially with the shift to mobile shopping.
• Less than 20% of iPhone users opt in to tracking, increasing customer acquisition costs for DTC brands.
• 59% of consumers are concerned about how their data is used by retailers.
• Only 5% of consumers ranked the retail industry as a top-three for data privacy, compared to 63% for banks.

Circular Fashion

• Circular fashion and secondhand apparel are gaining traction as consumers become more environmentally conscious.
• It is estimated that 36 billion clothing items are thrown away annually in the U.S., with 95% being recyclable or reusable.
• The secondhand apparel economy is projected to reach $77 billion by 2025.
• Resale platforms are helping traditional retailers expand online.

Key Sector Spotlights

Inflation

• Inflation has remained high, with the CPI rising 8.3% in April 2022.
• Supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand post-pandemic have contributed to inflationary pressures.
• Apparel and footwear prices rose 5.4% YoY in April 2022.
• Brands face a difficult choice: raise prices and risk alienating consumers or absorb costs and reduce margins.

Supply Chain Disruption

• About 87% of fashion executives expect supply chain disruptions to negatively impact margins in 2022.
• China's resurgence in COVID-19 cases has disrupted global supply chains, particularly in the Pearl River Delta.
• The imbalance between supply and demand has led to increased freight costs and delays.
• Consumer loyalty is wavering, with 79% willing to purchase the next best option if their favorite brands are out of stock.

M&A Activity Highlights

Cosabella Transaction

• Kroll advised Cosabella on its sale to CALIDA GROUP.
• Transaction multiples: 16.7x EBITDA and 2.76x Revenue.
• Strategic rationale:
  • Cosabella complements CALIDA GROUP's portfolio with its Italian heritage and strong brand identity.
  • The acquisition supports geographical expansion and consolidation in the intimates and lingerie market.
• Cosabella is a luxury intimates and loungewear brand that emphasizes inclusive, timeless designs and Italian craftsmanship.

Public Company Valuations

Apparel Brands

• Average LTM EV/EBITDA multiple: 9.4x
• Key brands:
  • Nike: 20.2x EV/EBITDA
  • Lululemon: 16.4x EV/EBITDA
  • Moncler: 10.4x EV/EBITDA
  • Under Armour: 6.8x EV/EBITDA
  • Columbia Sportswear: 6.5x EV/EBITDA
  • Canada Goose: 8.3x EV/EBITDA
• Trends indicate a shift toward more diversified and sustainable brands.

Footwear Brands

• Average LTM EV/EBITDA multiple: 8.7x
• Key brands:
  • Nike: 20.2x EV/EBITDA
  • Adidas: 8.8x EV/EBITDA
  • Puma: 8.7x EV/EBITDA
  • Skechers: 6.4x EV/EBITDA
  • Crocs: 5.9x EV/EBITDA
  • Wolverine: 7.2x EV/EBITDA
  • Steven Madden: 7.6x EV/EBITDA

Accessory Brands

• Average LTM EV/EBITDA multiple: 5.8x
• Key brands:
  • The Swatch Group: 5.5x EV/EBITDA
  • Pandora: 5.9x EV/EBITDA
  • Tapestry: 5.7x EV/EBITDA
  • Capri Holdings: 4.8x EV/EBITDA
  • Safilo: 7.1x EV/EBITDA
  • Fossil: NM EV/EBITDA
  • Movado: NM EV/EBITDA

Luxury Brands

• Average LTM EV/EBITDA multiple: 11.5x
• Key brands:
  • LVMH Moët Hennessy: 11.5x EV/EBITDA
  • Other luxury brands are also experiencing similar valuation trends, though specific data is limited.

Conclusion

The apparel and retail sectors are navigating a complex landscape marked by inflation, supply chain issues, and shifting consumer preferences. Despite these challenges, M&A activity remains robust, with a focus on premium brands and innovative concepts. The rise of circular fashion and the growing importance of data privacy are reshaping the industry, while the evolution of commerce toward mobile-first and online-centric models continues to influence consumer behavior and brand strategies.