德勤-2022年商业房地产展望（英）-28页_2mb

2022 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2022 commercial real estate (CRE) outlook highlights the sector's adaptation to economic, social, and digital disruptions. CRE firms are now required to rethink how they develop, finance, and use properties in response to new market realities and long-term challenges.

Main Points

1. Cautious Optimism for Operating Fundamentals

• Despite financial concerns and evolving regulations, there is general optimism about CRE fundamentals.
• Revenue expectations: 80% of respondents expect their institutions' revenues to improve in 2022 compared to 2021.
• Market trends:
  • North America maintains a positive outlook with lower vacancy levels and growing deal volume.
  • APAC and EMEA have seen lower deal volumes than 2019 levels.
  • Digital economy subsectors (data centers, cell towers, industrial) show better revenue prospects.
  • Residential market faces challenges due to pricing pressure and supply chain issues.

2. Warning Signs

• Back rent issues: Many CRE owners face liquidity challenges due to unpaid back rents, especially in Europe.
• Debt management: CRE firms are concerned about managing existing debt, with alternative financing solutions becoming more important.
• Regulatory changes: Tax policy and ESG reporting requirements are shaping the industry's future.
• Government investments: Large-scale infrastructure spending offers new development opportunities, especially in the U.S. and China.

3. The Challenge to Lead

• CRE leaders are under pressure to innovate and address societal issues.
• The shift to remote and hybrid work models is changing how people live, work, and spend their time, impacting real estate development and usage.
• CRE firms need to focus on sustainability, flexibility, and digital transformation to remain competitive.

4. Innovating through REaaS

• The Real Estate-as-a-Service (REaaS) model is gaining traction, combining strategy, technology, and data to offer more than just space.
• Key REaaS enhancements:
  • Sustainable and energy-efficient properties
  • Dynamic building designs
  • Flexible leasing models
  • Additional amenities
  • Interactive mobile apps
• Challenges: Only 75% of respondents have smart buildings comprising less than half of their portfolio.

5. Reevaluating Portfolios for Greater Differentiation

• CRE firms are rethinking their portfolios to maximize value through retrofitting, repurposing, and M&A.
• Top strategies:
  • Retrofit and upgrade existing properties
  • Repurpose space for alternate uses
  • Diversify portfolio beyond core assets
  • Invest in opportunistic deals
  • Conduct sale-leaseback transactions
• Suburban and emerging market focus: Over 40% of firms are likely to increase suburban activity, and more than half of North American firms plan to expand into emerging markets.

6. Social Momentum: The Time is Now

• ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) has become a key focus, with sustainability being the most important area.
• Actions to minimize environmental impact:
  • Invest in climate technology solutions
  • Upgrade buildings with standardized green features
  • Procure electricity from renewable sources
  • Prioritize green leasing
• Social equity and DE&I:
  • Only 50% of respondents believe their firms are making strategic investments in affordability and quality of life.
  • Less than half are addressing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) in tenant mix.
  • CRE firms are increasingly expected to align with community needs and social equity goals.

Key Information

• REaaS is a transformative approach that allows CRE firms to offer more than just physical space, leveraging technology and data for enhanced tenant experiences.
• Sustainability is a critical driver for tenant satisfaction and long-term value, with CRE firms needing to invest in energy efficiency, green leasing, and climate technology.
• Digital transformation is lagging, with only 25% of firms substantially increasing technology investments to improve asset and portfolio management.
• Portfolio differentiation is becoming essential, with firms focusing on retrofitting, repurposing, and M&A to adapt to changing market conditions.
• ESG reporting is becoming more stringent, requiring firms to track and disclose carbon emissions, human capital metrics, and other sustainability-related KPIs.
• Talent trends are reshaping the CRE industry, with a growing emphasis on purpose-driven work environments, flexible working arrangements, and ESG alignment.

Action Steps for CRE Leaders

• Address financial concerns: Engage with tenants, invest in their success, and improve business relationships.
• Leverage government infrastructure investments: Monitor large-scale projects, especially near major transit hubs.
• Enhance finance and technology capabilities: Improve internal systems and access to capital markets.
• Adopt REaaS model: Innovate traditional offerings, invest in technology, and partner with proptechs.
• Revitalize existing assets: Retrofit and repurpose properties to meet evolving tenant needs and market demands.
• Improve ESG governance: Develop clear ESG strategies, track performance, and align with stakeholder expectations.
• Promote social equity: Focus on community development, affordable housing, and DE&I initiatives.