【NREL】2024年海上风电市场报告_109页_7mb

Offshore Wind Market Report: 2024 Edition Summary

Core Content

The 2024 Offshore Wind Market Report provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S. and global offshore wind energy markets, focusing on technology, economic, and policy trends. It serves as a resource for policymakers, researchers, and analysts to understand the current state and future direction of the industry.

Main Points

U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Market

• Commercial Projects: The first commercial-scale offshore wind power plant in the U.S., the South Fork Wind Farm (132 MW), began delivering power to New York in November 2023 and was fully commissioned in March 2024. The Vineyard Wind 1 project (806 MW) achieved "first power" in January 2024 and remains under construction as of August 2024.
• Installed Capacity: As of May 31, 2024, the U.S. had 174 MW of offshore wind energy in operation.
• Pipeline Growth: The U.S. offshore wind energy pipeline reached 4,097 MW under construction as of May 31, 2024, with major contributions from Vineyard Wind 1 (806 MW), Revolution Wind (704 MW), and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (2,587 MW). This is a 53% increase compared to the previous report.
• Floating Offshore Wind: The U.S. floating offshore wind pipeline reached 25,116 MW, with 6,042 MW in the "site control" phase following the 2022 California auction. The remaining 19,074 MW are in the planning phase.
• State Mandates: Eight U.S. states have set procurement mandates totaling 45,730 MW by 2040. Five additional states have formal planning targets, bringing the total to 115,130 MW by 2050.
• Contracts and Offtake: As of May 31, 2024, 15 contracts for 12,378 MW of offshore wind electricity have been signed.
• Challenges: Rising costs due to inflation, interest rates, and supply chain issues have led to the cancellation of 8 projects. However, most states have reaffirmed their commitments and are restructuring procurement strategies to accommodate new offtake prices and re-bidding opportunities.
• Federal Support: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers 30% investment tax credits and $27.50/MWh production tax credits for offshore wind projects meeting wage and apprenticeship requirements. It also includes bonus credits for projects in energy communities with coal closures or high fossil fuel dependence.
• DOE Investment: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates $10 billion has been announced or invested in the U.S. offshore wind supply chain since 2021, with $2.1 billion in 2023 alone.
• NREL Estimate: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimates that $22 billion in investments will be needed for ports, large installation vessels, and major manufacturing facilities to establish the U.S. offshore wind supply chain.
• Leasing Activity: BOEM has announced lease sales in the Central Atlantic, Gulf of Maine, and Oregon in 2024. Seven of twelve proposed offshore wind auctions are in deep water suitable for floating wind technology.

Global Offshore Wind Energy Market

• Installed Capacity: As of December 31, 2023, 68,258 MW of offshore wind capacity were installed globally, with 6,326 MW added in 2023.
• Global Pipeline: The global offshore wind energy pipeline reached 453.6 GW by the end of 2023, with European and Chinese projects dominating the development pipeline.
• Floating Wind: The global floating offshore wind pipeline increased by 1.8% to 104,399 MW, with 231.4 MW of new capacity added in 2023. The Hywind Tampen project in Norway (88 MW) is the largest operational floating offshore wind plant in the world.
• Cost Trends: Unsubsidized levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for U.S. offshore wind projects is estimated at $125/MWh in 2023, with a range of $75 to $149/MWh depending on factors such as siting conditions and financing assumptions. This represents an increase of over 45% compared to 2023.

Technology Trends

• Turbine Size: Larger offshore wind turbines, such as the 15 MW platform, are moving toward commercial production. Some OEMs, like Vestas, have paused size increases to allow for supply chain and R&D investments.
• Market Leadership: Siemens Gamesa has secured grants to develop what is described as the "world's most powerful" offshore wind prototype, with operations planned for early 2025. Chinese OEMs have also announced plans for 18 MW to 22 MW turbines.
• Substructures: Fixed-bottom and floating substructures are being deployed globally, with floating technologies gaining traction in deeper waters.

Future Outlook

• U.S. Forecasts: The U.S. offshore wind pipeline reached ~81 GW as of 2024. Forecasts suggest U.S. offshore wind could reach 40 GW (4C Offshore, 2024) or 42 GW (BNEF, 2023) by 2035.
• Global Forecasts: BNEF and 4C Offshore predict global offshore wind capacity will reach 492 GW and 422 GW, respectively, by 2035. China is expected to grow from 52.2 GW to 188.9 GW.
• U.S. Share: The U.S. is projected to account for 9% of global offshore wind capacity by 2035.
• Market Stability: While macroeconomic challenges persist, the IRA and state-level policies are expected to improve market stability and long-term economic viability.

Key Information

• Key Players: NREL, BOEM, DOE, and various industry stakeholders and consultants.
• Data Sources: The report includes a database of offshore wind projects and underlying data available at NREL/TP-5000-90525data.xlsx.
• Visuals: Includes maps and figures of U.S. and global offshore wind pipeline activity, project statuses, and cost trends.
• Trends: Larger turbines, floating wind development, increased state procurement mandates, and federal tax incentives are shaping the industry's trajectory.

Conclusion

The U.S. and global offshore wind energy markets are experiencing significant growth and transformation. While macroeconomic pressures and supply chain issues have led to project delays and cancellations, the industry is adapting through policy changes, new leasing activities, and technological advancements. The IRA and state-level commitments are expected to support long-term market stability and expansion.