20221223-瑞士信贷集团-US_Restaurants-Food_for_Thought_All_Aboard_the_Restaurant_Express_12页_486kb

US Restaurants Weekly Summary

Core Content

This summary provides a detailed overview of key developments in the US restaurant and foodservice industry during the week of December 19–23, 2022. It includes insights into gift card trends, restaurant acquisitions, new menu items, technology integration, and industry outlooks.

Main Points

Gift Card Trends

• Holiday Gift Card Season: Restaurants see a significant increase in gift card redemptions in the first quarter following the holiday season.
• Starbucks: Projects $3BN in gift card loadings for the holiday season (October to December), with 1 in 6 Americans expected to receive a Starbucks Card. The busiest day for purchases is anticipated to be December 23.
• Gift Card Sales: Total gift card sales are expected to reach $28.6BN, up from $28.1BN in 2021. Restaurant gift cards are the second most popular gift after clothing.
• Bonus Offers: Many restaurants are offering bonus cards or promotions to encourage gift card purchases during the holiday season.

Restaurant Acquisitions & Deals

• Inspire Brands & Rusty Taco: Gala Capital Partners acquired Rusty Taco, which Inspire Brands had previously purchased in 2018.
• Freshii & Foodtastic: Freshii has entered into a $74.4MM cash deal to be acquired by Foodtastic, a Canadian franchisor with over 1,200 restaurants and $950MM in sales.
• Dine Brands & Fuzzy's Taco Shop: Dine Brands acquired Fuzzy's Taco Shop for $80MM.
• Other Acquisitions: Denny's acquired Keke's Breakfast Café, Dave & Buster's acquired Main Event, MTY Food Group acquired Wetzel's Pretzels & BBQ Holdings, and Butterfly acquired Odoba.
• Consolidation Trends: The restaurant sector has seen increased consolidation in 2022, driven by the pursuit of scale and technology synergies.

New Menu Items & Promotions

• Papa Johns: Launched Papa Bites, including OREO Cookie, Jalapeño, and Chicken Parmesan, available to reward members starting December 19.
• Sonic: Introduced a new Under $2 Craves menu and brought back Pickle Fries.
• Taco Bell: Testing $6 Craving Trios, which include a Crunchwrap, Cheesy Gordita Crunch, or Mexican Pizza with a Nacho Cheese Doritos Locos Tacos and a medium drink.
• Del Taco: Brought back the Orange Cream Shake and added new multi-unit agreements in Florida.
• Shake Shack: Shared 2022 trends, highlighting the Shack Burger with Crinkle Cut Fries and Cookies & Cream Shake as the top order.
• BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse: Added three new chicken items to its menu.
• Golden Corral: Introduced the Holiday Beef Roast Feast and brought back the Whole Roasted Turkey Meal and Holiday Glazed Ham Meal.
• Papa Murphy's: Launched new Meatballs & Marinara nationwide.
• Church's Texas Chicken: Offered a 3-Piece Classic Meal starting at $4.49 and a $7.99 combo meal with a side of mashed potatoes and drink.

Industry Trends & Outlooks

• USDA Food Price Outlook: Anticipates a 3.5–4.5% increase in total food prices for 2023, up from the previous 3–4%.
• Restaurant365 Survey: 60% of US restaurants plan to expand in 2023, despite challenges. 75% expect labor costs to rise, with an average increase of ~9% in 2022.
• Technomic TIndex: November 2022 foodservice industry sales were +4.2% vs 2019 and +7.2% vs 2021, driven by ~8.5% inflation.
• Marcum Survey: 71% of executives reported revenue growth in 2022, with 69% expecting growth in 2023. Inflation and labor shortages are the top challenges.
• NPD Group Data (Convenience Stores): Foodservice sales in convenience stores rose 8% in the three months ending November 2022, with traffic increases in key dayparts.

Technology & Sustainability

• KFC & Vibes: Partnering on an SMS and mobile wallet program, aiming for 98% retention and 40x ROI.
• Presto: Introduced custom voice features in its drive-thru automation solution, with 68% of 18–44-year-olds more likely to use a drive-thru with a celebrity voice.
• Berry AI: Rolled out an AI timer system to 30 stores to improve service speed and lost sales tracking.
• Tim Hortons: Introducing more sustainable packaging, including fiber cutlery and lids, to reduce single-use plastics by 90MM+ annually.

Franchise & Expansion

• Jack in the Box: Signed its largest franchise agreement with Cedar Tree Restaurant Group, developing 37 new restaurants and operating 46 existing ones.
• Huddle House: Introduced new pancake and waffle options.
• Wienerschnitzel/Hamburger Stand: Launched a Mix & Match promotion with 5 Chili Dogs or Corn Dogs for $7.95.
• Genghis Grill: Shifted to a more curated menu with global influences, including new chef-developed bowls.
• The Great Greek Mediterranean Grill: Signed 24 franchise and 16 multi-unit development agreements, with plans to open 7 restaurants in Q1 2023.
• Fat Boy's Pizza: Launched a new drive-thru express model with digital menu boards and kiosks.
• Sweet Chick: Planning to open its first fast casual prototype, offering daily breakfast and brunch.

Key Companies Mentioned

Company	Ticker	Price (as of 23-Dec-2022)
BJs Restaurants	BJRI.OQ	$27.44
Bloomin' Brands	BLMN.OQ	$20.76
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.	CMG.N	$1407.8
Darden Restaurants	DRI.N	$137.31
Denny's	DENN.OQ	$9.06
Dine Brands	DIN.N	$65.52
Domino's Pizza Inc.	DPZ.N	$352.21
Jack in the Box Inc.	JACK.OQ	$67.7
McDonald's Corporation	MCD.N	$265.77
Oatly Group AB	OTLY.OQ	$1.52
Papa John's International, Inc.	PZZA.OQ	$82.48
Performance Food Group Company	PFGC.N	$59.03
Red Robin Gourmt	RRGB.OQ	$5.87
Restaurant Brands International Inc	QSR.N	$64.65
Shake Shack	SHAK.N	$44.95
Starbucks Corporation	SBUX.OQ	$97.76
Sysco Corporation	SYY.N	$77.22
Texas Roadhouse	TXRH.OQ	$95.73
The Cheesecake Factory	CAKE.OQ	$31.78
The Wendy's Company	WEN.OQ	$22.98
US Foods Holding Corp.	USFD.N	$34.44
Yum! Brands, Inc.	YUM.N	$128.82

Analyst Certification

Lauren Silberman certifies that the views expressed in this report reflect her personal opinions and that no part of her compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this report.

Stock Rating Definitions

• Outperform (O): Expected to outperform the relevant benchmark over the next 12 months.
• Neutral (N): Expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark.
• Underperform (U): Expected to underperform the relevant benchmark.

Note: Ratings are based on total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe or regional benchmarks, depending on the region.