国际清算银行_季度回顾-2025年3月_116页_2mb

BIS Quarterly Review Summary - March 2025

Core Content

The BIS Quarterly Review for March 2025 provides an analysis of international banking and financial market developments, focusing on the dynamics of bond yields, equity markets, and the impact of US monetary policy on other advanced economies (AEs). It also explores the global influence of US interest rates, the performance of risky assets, and the role of private credit in the global financial landscape.

Key Topics and Findings

1. Markets Caught in Cross-currents

• Bond Yields: Despite easing monetary policies, long-term government bond yields in AEs rose, driven by fluctuations in real yields and term premia.
• Yield Curves: Long-term yields in the US increased significantly, while other AEs saw a more subdued rise, leading to a steepening of yield curves.
• US Dollar Appreciation: The US dollar appreciated to its highest level since late 2022 but reversed later in the review period due to concerns over the US growth outlook.
• Emerging Markets (EMEs): Sentiment towards EMEs remained subdued, with investors uncertain about their outlook due to varied domestic conditions and global policy uncertainty.

2. Long-term Yields Rise Amid Wide Fluctuations

• Inflation Trends: Inflation readings in major economies stayed above target, with a notable increase at year-end.
• Term Premia: Term premia increased, indicating higher compensation demanded by investors for holding long-term debt.
• Interest Rate Spillovers: US interest rate changes had a significant spillover effect on other AEs, particularly in the second half of 2024 and early 2025.
• Central Bank Actions: The ECB and Bank of Japan showed different policy responses, while the Fed indicated a pause in rate cuts.

3. Pricing of Risky Assets Remains in Hot Territory

• Equity Resilience: Equity markets showed resilience, with European stocks outperforming US equities and staying at elevated valuations.
• Corporate Credit: Corporate credit markets remained strong, with credit spreads narrowing and leveraged loans and private credit seeing increased activity.
• Earnings Performance: Strong earnings from US technology firms and euro area banks supported equity valuations, while small-cap stocks saw a post-election surge that later faded.

4. US Spillovers Amid Macroeconomic Divergence

• Yield Spillovers: US bond yields had a major impact on other AEs, with spillovers intensifying in the second half of 2024.
• Macro Impact: US macroeconomic news, particularly labor market and inflation data, had a larger influence on global markets than before.
• Asymmetric Spillovers: The US had a dominant role in shaping global financial conditions, with limited reciprocal effects from other AEs.

5. Private Credit and Global Drivers

• Private Credit Growth: Private credit grew in the US and globally, driven by both demand and supply factors.
• Cost of Capital: The relationship between banks, private credit, and the cost of capital was explored, highlighting the importance of capital availability.
• Economic Significance: The economic significance of bank-fund commonality was noted, particularly in terms of liquidity and market pressure.

6. Green Bond Market and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Green Bond Growth: The green bond market continued to grow, with a focus on linking climate change policies to GHG emissions.
• Standards Evolution: Green bond standards have evolved, influencing how investors and issuers approach sustainable finance.
• Policy Influence: The issuance of green bonds is seen as a mechanism to align with environmental policies and reduce emissions.

Main Views and Key Information

• Yield Movements: Long-term yields in AEs rose despite monetary easing, reflecting heightened inflation expectations and term premia.
• Market Resilience: Equity and corporate credit markets showed resilience, with European stocks performing particularly well.
• US Influence: US monetary policy had a significant and asymmetric spillover effect on other AEs, with macroeconomic news driving global market responses.
• Emerging Markets: Sentiment towards EMEs remained low, with financial conditions mixed and yields elevated in some countries.
• Private Credit: The growth of private credit was influenced by both demand and supply factors, with implications for the cost of capital and financial stability.
• Green Bonds: The green bond market is expanding, with potential to influence GHG emissions and environmental policies.

Conclusion

The review highlights the complex interplay between global monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and financial market dynamics. It underscores the growing influence of the US in shaping global financial conditions, the resilience of risky assets, and the evolving role of private credit and green bonds in the financial system. The findings suggest that while there are challenges in EMEs and uncertainties in global policy, the overall financial environment remains supportive of certain asset classes.