UBS_Equities-Global_Strategy_2024_was_KRWs_worst_year_since_the_GFC._Wi...-112997051_14页_1mb

报告摘要

UBS Global Strategy: Won's 2025 Outlook

Key Points:

2024 Performance:
Korean Won (KRW) experienced its worst annual performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), driven by five factors:
- Kospi's underperformance vs. S&P 500.
- US 10-year yield widening, hurting low-yielding currencies.
- Sluggish manufacturing cycle and exports.
- Resident outflows and domestic political developments.
2025 Outlook:
- The Won is "fairly valued" at 1375 vs. USD, significantly discounted from its current trading range.
- Scope for near-term outperformance due to:
  - NPS FX Hedging: Expected to reduce outflows by 1.7 percentage points, boosting the Won by ~5%.
  - Kospi Stability: Stocks are at depressed valuations and showing signs of bottoming.
  - Reduced Political Uncertainty: Domestic political risks are easing.
Tactical Trade:
- Recommend tactical buying of KRW vs. TWD.
- Target TWD/KRW at 42, advising against long-term bets due to medium-term risks.
External Risks:
- Negative impact from US-China trade tensions and potential China's deflationary forces.
- Won's weakness may not spill over to domestic rates if inflation remains low.
NPS FX Hedging:
- NPS is diversifying foreign assets and slowing outbound investments.
- Expected to FX hedge ~7% of foreign holdings, materially impacting the BoP.

Summary:

Despite a difficult 2024, the Won is assessed as "fairly valued" with significant upside potential. Union Pension Funds' reduced outflows and Kospi's stabilization are key drivers for 2025. A tactical buy recommendation targets the TWD/KRW cross at 42, but medium-term risks, including external uncertainties and cycle-dependent volatility, remain.

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