2023-05-08-世界银行-2023年4月商品市场展望_价格下跌_几乎没有缓解（英）_58页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook: April 2023

Global commodity prices fell 14% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, declining roughly 30% from their June 2022 peak due to slowing economic activity, favorable weather, and trade reallocation. Prices are forecast to decline by 21% in 2023 and remain stable in 2024, but remain above pre-pandemic levels, weighing on affordability and food security.

Crude oil demand slowed in 2023, with Brent averaging $84/bbl. Natural gas prices plummeted over 53%, while coal prices dropped 42%. Agricultural prices decreased 7% in 2023, though food insecurity reached over 349 million people—double that in 2020—due to high prices, conflicts, and climate shocks.

Special Focus: Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

• Futures: Widely used but yield inefficient and imprecise forecasts.
• Time Series: Multivariate models generally outperform benchmarks (no-change, futures, univariate).
• Machine Learning: Techniques like neural networks/ support vector regressions show improved forecast accuracy over some traditional methods.

Future editions of the report will provide detailed empirical analysis for seven industrial commodities (oil, aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc).