2011年-世界发展银行全球_State_and_Trends_of_the_Carbon_Market_2011_84页_4mb

Summary of the State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011

Core Content

The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 report, prepared by the World Bank, provides an analysis of the carbon market's development and challenges in 2010 and the outlook for 2011. It highlights the stagnation of the global carbon market after five years of growth, with the total market value reaching $142 billion in 2010. The report emphasizes the growing dominance of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which accounted for 97% of the global carbon market value in 2010.

The report outlines the key international developments from the Cancun Conference, including the reaffirmation of the goal to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C compared to preindustrial levels, and the continuation of the Kyoto mechanisms with improvements to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). It also notes the establishment of the Green Climate Fund and the recognition of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) from developing countries.

Main Points

1. International Developments

• Cancun Conference Outcomes:

  • Reaffirmed the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C.
  • Agreed to review the 2°C target with the possibility of moving to a 1.5°C target based on new scientific evidence.
  • Established the Green Climate Fund.
  • Continued support for the Kyoto mechanisms, including CDM and Joint Implementation (JI).
  • Included REDD and REDD+ in the climate agenda, which aim to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and also include sustainable forest management and carbon sink enhancement.

• Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms:

  • The CDM and JI mechanisms are expected to remain in place but face uncertainty regarding their future role in the post-2012 regime.
  • The EU ETS has been increasingly selective about the types of CDM projects it accepts, especially those from Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

• Market Confidence:

  • Despite short-term uncertainties, market participants remain optimistic about the possibility of a binding international agreement in the long term.
  • The Cancun Conference helped restore some confidence in the UNFCCC process.

2. Domestic Policy Developments

• Annex I Countries:

  • The EU is leading in the development of carbon market regulations, emphasizing transparency and market integrity.
  • The EU ETS is undergoing reforms, including the introduction of qualitative restrictions on certain CDM projects.

• Non-Annex I Countries:

  • Countries like Australia, Japan, and South Korea have delayed or abandoned their domestic cap-and-trade schemes due to political and economic challenges.
  • California's Cap-and-Trade Scheme is expected to begin in 2012 and is seen as a potential model for other regions.

• Linking Emissions Trading Schemes:

  • There is a growing interest in linking different carbon trading systems to increase efficiency and reduce costs.
  • However, the lack of a unified international framework continues to create a fragmented market environment.

3. Market Transactions and Regulation

• Regulatory Landscape:

  • The EU is introducing new regulations to ensure market integrity and reduce fraud.
  • Financial market reforms have increased scrutiny on carbon market activities, including over-the-counter (OTC) trading and carbon asset transparency.

• Market Segments:

  • Primary CDM and Secondary CDM markets have seen declines in activity due to regulatory uncertainty and reduced demand.
  • Voluntary markets have shown increased activity, particularly in REDD+ and other offset projects.
  • EU ETS has seen security issues, including carbon allowance thefts and VAT fraud, which have raised concerns about market integrity.

4. Carbon and Climate Finance

• Kyoto Market:

  • The CDM market faced low demand and low supply in the post-2012 period.
  • The EU ETS is expected to restrict the use of certain CDM credits, particularly from industrial gas projects.

• Voluntary Markets:

  • The Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) and Verified Carbon Units (VCUs) have become more prominent.
  • These markets are gaining traction in developing countries, including Brazil, China, India, and Mexico.

• New Asset Classes:

  • REDD+ is being considered as a new asset class in the carbon market.
  • Sustainable Land Management and Agricultural Soil Carbon are also emerging as potential areas for offset projects.

5. Market Outlook

• Demand and Supply Balance:

  • The report forecasts a residual demand of 136 MtCOe through to 2012.
  • There are concerns that post-2012 emission reductions in developing countries may not be sufficient to meet global climate goals.
  • Scenario analysis suggests that the potential supply of offsets from non-Annex I countries may increase significantly by 2020.

• Future Prospects:

  • The fragmented nature of the market may persist, but linking and increased ambition could lead to a more integrated and effective carbon market.
  • The EU is expected to play a leading role in shaping the future of the international carbon market.

Key Information

• The global carbon market value reached $142 billion in 2010, but growth has stalled.
• The EU ETS dominates the market, accounting for 84% of global carbon market value in 2010.
• Cancun Conference resulted in positive outcomes, including the establishment of the Green Climate Fund and the inclusion of REDD+ in the climate agenda.
• Domestic policies in major economies have been fragmented, with many countries delaying or abandoning their cap-and-trade schemes.
• Regulatory reforms are ongoing, particularly in the EU, to ensure market integrity and transparency.
• The voluntary carbon market is growing, with REDD+ and other offset projects gaining attention.
• The report highlights the need for clarity in the post-2012 international climate regime and ambitious domestic policies to support global emission reduction targets.

Conclusion

The 2011 report underscores the transition phase of the carbon market, marked by regulatory uncertainty, market fragmentation, and increased focus on climate finance. While the EU ETS remains the dominant market, the international climate negotiations are still in progress, and domestic initiatives may play a crucial role in shaping the future of carbon trading. The voluntary market and new asset classes like REDD+ are emerging as important tools for climate mitigation and financial investment. The report calls for greater regulatory clarity, market integration, and international cooperation to achieve a robust and sustainable carbon market.