2021-10-14-牛津经济研究院-UK_The_economy_continues_to_claw_back_Covid_losses_7页_213kb

报告摘要

15 Oct 2021

Weekly Economic Briefing UK

Summary

Economic Recovery Progress: The UK economy showed further progress in returning to its pre-Covid size, with August output up 0.4% month-on-month. The gap to the pre-pandemic level narrowed to 0.8%. Services grew by 0.3%, with a strong showing from arts and entertainment (+24.7%).
Services Growth: Despite adjustments due to lower Covid activity (-0.3ppts from vaccinations and testing), underlying services growth was positive. Construction output slipped slightly.
Growth Hurdles: Concerns remain about a potential slowdown due to higher inflation (driven by energy prices, Universal Credit cut) squeezing consumer spending power and ongoing supply-side disruptions inhibiting activity.
Petrol Panic Temporary Boost: Recent panic-buying of petrol provided a temporary boost, evident in CHAPS card spending data.
Labour Market: Job vacancies reached a record high (1.1 million), and the unemployment rate fell to a near pre-pandemic low (4.5%). However, employment is still about 650,000 below pre-pandemic levels, creating a labour market dynamic of plentiful vacancies but lower actual employment.
Inflation Focus: Inflation rose to a seven-year high (3.2% y/y) in August but is expected to decrease in September due to base effects. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, is estimated to be between 4.1% and 5.6%. This focus is shifting policy debates at the MPC, with arguments for earlier rate hikes versus a dovish view against pre-temporary inflation rise actions.
PMI Trail: Latest services and manufacturing PMIs showed slight improvement, but a weakness in the construction PMI indicated potential downward pressure, likely influenced by supply-side issues.
Key Forecasts: Point to sustained GDP growth but caution that inflationary pressures and subdued consumer sentiment could limit pace. The UK economy is expected to continue contracting slightly in GDP terms for autumn-winter but is projected to grow in 2022.